MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b07831730ce8f091fa861b8e1add34b96436a7ec9627a16bc8cb6c783bc2531
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $202,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $267,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 60c | 89,089$53,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,529.79 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 39c | 29,588$11,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,397.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 40c | 10,593$4,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,237 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 7,603$5,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,046.41 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 39c | 6,666$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599.74 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 61c | 6,376$3,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,490.11 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 59c | 3,393$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.13 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 40c | 3,205$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.79 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…9fc9backed Over | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 43c | 1,628$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under | 62c | 1,500$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 114 | 64%73 W · 41 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 41c | 1,371$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.92 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 40c | 1,301$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Under | 58c | 1,100$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 79c | 1,017$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.56 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 41c | 871$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.41 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 40c | 825$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 750$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.44 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 72c | 621.26$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.43 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 78c | 360.5$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.11 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 39c | 346.25$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.75 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 41c | 314.69$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.02 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Under | 58c | 300$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 62c | 224.77$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.28 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 41c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 67c | 193.1$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Under | 58c | 172$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 112 | 58%65 W · 47 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1058…01c1backed Over | 43c | 155$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 39c | 141.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…ae14backed Over | 48c | 106.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 59c | 101$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…96a8backed Under | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Over | 26c | 77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 41c | 67.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 57.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 37c | 51.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 41c | 46.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 43.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1da…3b79backed Under | 80c | 42.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 40c | 40.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Under | 76c | 36.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Under | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…feb1backed Over | 50c | 20.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -8.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 79c | 15.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.