MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2b73d85da0685abbf88ccbc19f67d6b9910d901998a4ef0cfb10311c3be6409
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $177,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $181,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 51c | 100,875$51,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,493.85 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 61,496$30,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,007.09 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 47c | 43,925$20,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,280.46 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 53c | 42,600$22,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,578 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 26,405$14,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,530.27 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 7,429$3,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,851.79 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…1bfabacked Under | 60c | 5,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.08 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…a5a8backed Under | 47c | 3,191$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,691.49 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 46c | 2,874$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.72 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 1,864$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.26 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 52c | 1,692$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.66 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 52c | 1,042$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.69 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 47c | 1,022$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.4 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 52c | 944.88$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.34 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 52c | 888$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.76 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 54c | 869.64$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.99 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Over | 11c | 700$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 114 | 64%73 W · 41 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 46c | 487.08$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.02 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 46c | 452$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.28 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 51c | 415.22$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.81 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Under | 42c | 404.76$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.76 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 48c | 397.45$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.45 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 389.72$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.45 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 46c | 375.25$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.64 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…ce6cbacked Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked Under | 60c | 333.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.42 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 46c | 296$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 255.88$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.03 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 15c | 240.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 54c | 235.68$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.53 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe954…1ef1backed Under | 45c | 219.06$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.48 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1058…01c1backed Over | 40c | 206.98$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 46c | 172.83$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 46c | 163.6$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.34 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 36c | 157.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 140.18$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.98 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 130.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Under | 46c | 111.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x085d…c89ebacked Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Over | 61c | 97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 731 | 43.4%317 W · 414 L | -15.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Under | 54c | 64.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 46c | 60.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 58c | 57.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed Under | 52c | 56.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Under | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 41c | 52.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 46c | 51.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 54c | 41.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 58c | 40.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cb…6303backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b8…4a59backed Under | 63c | 38.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 37.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 55c | 35.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641d…eeedbacked Over | 52c | 34.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…78a5backed Under | 61c | 34.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d45…1c86backed Under | 62c | 32.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 55c | 28.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 55c | 27.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 779 | 52.1%406 W · 373 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 48c | 27.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 46c | 25.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Under | 47c | 25.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 51c | 22.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…feb1backed Over | 63c | 20.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -8.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x42c0…b200backed Under | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.