MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63dea494f526fd9cf526c7e476b2addb06c8de7a84ae247484baf02c4cd5dc0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 17,131$6,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,621.13 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 5,880$3,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,572.56 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 4,500$2,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,790 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 2,588$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,531.85 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 2,458$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.19 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 2,220$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,571.87 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 1,639$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…9e12backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 1,613$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 1,529$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.93 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 1,124$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.13 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 977.72$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.18 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 828.67$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.2 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 709.24$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.62 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 604.91$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.9 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 72c | 484$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.94 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 432.47$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.32 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 369.29$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.2 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 360$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.2 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 14c | 359.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 359$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.99 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 322.01$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.77 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 242.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.19 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 213.84$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.58 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 143.72$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 123.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.97 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 100.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 99.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 66.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +80%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 63.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 44.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 40.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Cincinnati Reds | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 33.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 26.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…b490backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 20.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.