MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0010d266346ecacedb3dbbce654dbfb68a95aeb170e3f5088b29c75b6eb76ed6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Cincinnati Reds, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 6,903$2,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,925.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 3,030$1,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.05 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 2,450$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.5 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 1,647$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…4883backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 1,388$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.76 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 1,084$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.25 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 1,074$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.68 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 67c | 620.61$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.32 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 399$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.53 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 327.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.76 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 307.5$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.23 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 299.55$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.82 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 268.66$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.12 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 156.24$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 156.24$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 15c | 131.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 122.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 120.84$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 67.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 65.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 26.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0195…9f64backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…594dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 14.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.