TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 15-18%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$236,447
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$186,817

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,447 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c6c…1f86backed Yes10c39,123$3,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,848.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94c4…43cabacked Yes8c14,772$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.871266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes8c11,689$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.18632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ba4…4f6bbacked Yes19c10,950$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,069.62425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+86.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes2c9,819$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.1328430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa99c…08b4backed Yes11c8,146$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa80…3aa0backed Yes80c7,865$6,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,284.431752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes7c7,317$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.021233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30d9…7c7bbacked Yes10c5,978$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.6580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.41per pick39cpaid+102.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x64f7…afa6backed No71c4,608$3,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.472231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed Yes6c3,946$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.7919623%45 W · 151 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0036…553ebacked Yes21c2,381$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.651050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes6c2,324$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.218716.1%14 W · 73 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002528%7 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-48.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5942…a678backed Yes13c1,959$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.623652.8%19 W · 17 L+8.3wins+0.23per pick30cpaid+66%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No16c1,862$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,562.227526.7%20 W · 55 L+9.2wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+63.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed Yes5c1,845$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.472133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c5a…7e4ebacked Yes5c1,827$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes6c1,548$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.115223.1%12 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2461…f240backed Yes9c1,222$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.831154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+50.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ad6…cc62backed Yes43c1,204$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.622857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5bad…8974backed Yes9c1,127$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.81540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e61…0146backed Yes5c1,105$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.46742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+43.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1db1…aa4bbacked Yes51c1,086$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-54.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f83…6cd9backed Yes12c1,042$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.282871.4%20 W · 8 L+5.0wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+18.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xad31…2f44backed Yes59c985.04$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-51.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b49…178dbacked Yes5c979.1$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa643…e1c1backed Yes14c955.83$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13340%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked Yes6c879.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.085942.4%25 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes11c873.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.553718.9%7 W · 30 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-50.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes28c871.55$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf13d…6b6ebacked Yes36c870.96$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.05714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes5c865.57$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.666634.8%23 W · 43 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6edd…728cbacked Yes33c760.4$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+38.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83db…e775backed Yes13c747.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+167.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes6c733.14$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.362123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-62.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb609…85f8backed Yes15c662.24$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.61172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+75%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed No46c661.79$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.978354.2%45 W · 38 L+18.2wins+0.22per pick32cpaid+66.4%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xa527…4228backed Yes11c601.61$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.37785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.46per pick40cpaid+112.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd569…48c1backed Yes9c550$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd566…3e2dbacked Yes7c538.93$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.143315.2%5 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9800…9a33backed Yes9c525.84$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a4d…2173backed Yes7c500$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.11546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+70.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes17c452.2$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.544445.5%20 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x371e…86b6backed Yes10c450.47$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick44cpaid-68.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes11c447.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.338129.6%24 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-44.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e40…a020backed Yes49c442.24$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.2650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+74.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c416.9$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.552344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65b1…2869backed Yes5c411.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.21633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x575f…ac27backed Yes17c401.35$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25b3…e61abacked Yes5c393.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+45%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No76c380.61$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.8943243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes9c374.93$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.523145.2%14 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+50.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc492…11c1backed Yes8c373.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb112…7361backed Yes15c357.37$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes4c346.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.417330.1%52 W · 121 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…fd6dbacked Yes10c333.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.74955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes9c313.39$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5731534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbedd…58a4backed Yes8c299.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.20per pick35cpaid+53.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes24c287$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.717238.9%28 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa272…71f1backed Yes75c281.54$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba4a…713dbacked Yes13c269.64$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x205a…7a63backed Yes7c269.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes9c264.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.31344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2120…bba9backed Yes15c236.7$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fa7…97d0backed Yes5c225.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6408…7f4dbacked Yes11c224.96$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32e5…931abacked Yes5c216.49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-79.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes12c205.2$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7116343.6%71 W · 92 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e07…3545backed No37c200$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.262100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+119.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes12c199.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.615932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x944e…96a8backed Yes60c166.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5076…1d96backed Yes44c160.88$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.43450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0e3…6677backed Yes14c150$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.253429.4%10 W · 24 L+6.1wins+0.18per pick12cpaid+167.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes9c146$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8816940.2%68 W · 101 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc8a…36cfbacked Yes79c139.39$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Yes13c139$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.074650%23 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77a7…0180backed Yes15c136.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c6…08b3backed Yes62c129.97$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No28c118.61$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.754721.3%10 W · 37 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes9c118.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb03f…c592backed Yes17c117.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7264…a39cbacked Yes61c113.55$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.08714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-64.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa009…ab48backed Yes9c109.92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13c9…af7dbacked Yes19c106.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3469…d0c7backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick31cpaid+200.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x66d9…bef3backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-64.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes17c94.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9444428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x10de…a9f6backed Yes27c91.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+61.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No66c91$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0319237.5%72 W · 120 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2374…f6c4backed Yes15c83.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.581931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+38.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x09d2…c8f4backed Yes24c82.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201384.6%11 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick61cpaid+44%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x71fb…1d2dbacked Yes12c82.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No55c77.62$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.935062%31 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff9…baadbacked Yes45c70.69$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes70c63.1$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.316535.8%59 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c9b…7a04backed Yes58c61.28$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.46742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-33%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes54c55.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.124259.5%25 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbe0…031dbacked Yes70c43.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd61e…f363backed Yes43c40.23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.