World Politics · resolved market
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc6878370fd040a07cda65736c351e2cbdd7bbf572c4a22f82789cb8ce1cbfbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed Yes | 23c | 828.07$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -5.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee1…d1c4backed Yes | 20c | 783$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked No | 79c | 749$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd008…e9dbbacked Yes | 21c | 739$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked Yes | 21c | 736$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…af45backed No | 79c | 726$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 77c | 599.97$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.92 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…3eaabacked Yes | 16c | 548$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2581…e580backed Yes | 19c | 513.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05fc…f78ebacked Yes | 15c | 511$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.81 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 17c | 418.25$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 12c | 401.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 17c | 253.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 18c | 206.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x909d…41f3backed Yes | 18c | 206$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…f6b5backed No | 79c | 202$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…0800backed No | 78c | 87.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 16c | 86.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 26c | 85.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 74.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff1…1be9backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 79cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 75c | 14.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4618…7173backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?this page
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%?Yes won
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 15-18%?No won
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 18%+?No won
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9-12%?No won
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by <9%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.