World Politics · resolved market
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9-12%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e53afc07eb93e3a6ee2ef294d77573995d138caeee79621870c9eedb5424888
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 3c | 20,600$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.64 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba4…4f6bbacked Yes | 3c | 14,007$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa80…3aa0backed Yes | 1c | 11,415$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…afa6backed Yes | 2c | 5,780$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.14 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,270$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.39 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db1…aa4bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,795$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed Yes | 15c | 3,786$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd566…3e2dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,400$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.91 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976c…c3cabacked Yes | 8c | 2,653$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.66 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…a678backed Yes | 4c | 1,834$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +66%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,455$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 1,295$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…6b6ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,100$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8476…5418backed Yes | 1c | 998.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 16c | 702$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 12c | 671.54$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.21 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 16c | 660$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d4…9b17backed Yes | 49c | 629.88$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…06acbacked Yes | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 10c | 471.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed Yes | 16c | 460$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 4c | 457.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…a020backed Yes | 16c | 455.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 4c | 447.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03f…c592backed Yes | 5c | 367.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed Yes | 6c | 361$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10de…a9f6backed Yes | 18c | 251.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…ac27backed Yes | 6c | 201.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddaa…fdecbacked Yes | 18c | 199.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce15…89cdbacked Yes | 18c | 151.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07ec…0ec4backed Yes | 18c | 126.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf860…dcf8backed Yes | 18c | 115.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c37…2f3cbacked Yes | 18c | 110.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 11c | 109$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 102$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 16c | 102$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebb8…5d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 81.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9527…4f95backed Yes | 17c | 70.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9-12%?this page
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%?Yes won
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 15-18%?No won
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 18%+?No won
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by <9%?No won
- Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.