World Politics · resolved market
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 18%+?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x586bf91187e0517f41595f850486fe1401220e59abd477a6d5d34b7882fd23c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 5c | 51,136$2,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 71c | 23,187$16,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,791.78 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 32c | 14,068$4,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,463.33 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…afa6backed No | 78c | 9,071$7,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,036.41 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6c…1f86backed Yes | 6c | 6,386$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked Yes | 26c | 6,044$1,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,601.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba4…4f6bbacked Yes | 18c | 4,986$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 27c | 4,479$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.44 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 70c | 3,041$2,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.52 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fce…1dbbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,049$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff9…baadbacked Yes | 10c | 2,018$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…fdf9backed Yes | 23c | 1,538$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.1 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6edd…728cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,514$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…b472backed Yes | 55c | 1,054$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…6b6ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,049$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83db…e775backed Yes | 10c | 1,029$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +167.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0e…cf87backed Yes | 31c | 894.94$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 71c | 846.52$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.29 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…553ebacked Yes | 22c | 825$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 2c | 755.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…5587backed Yes | 14c | 722.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 612.23$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.63 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x25d4…9b17backed Yes | 10c | 605.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 6c | 599.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 59c | 484.4$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.88 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2352…4c5abacked Yes | 11c | 450.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 5c | 447.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 9c | 446.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e097backed Yes | 16c | 429.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db1…aa4bbacked Yes | 26c | 406.04$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…e7cabacked No | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…1a71backed Yes | 11c | 382.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +6.0wins | +0.43per pick | 50cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 8c | 373$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbedd…58a4backed Yes | 9c | 339.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9169…e2dabacked Yes | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 8c | 299$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes | 13c | 279$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…e50fbacked Yes | 13c | 273$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes | 13c | 265$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 71c | 261.89$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.2 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c37…2f3cbacked Yes | 20c | 251.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 41c | 242.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed Yes | 12c | 200.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 15c | 191$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 14c | 155.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 18c | 150.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 10c | 118.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd566…3e2dbacked Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 16c | 94.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ee…bb96backed Yes | 61c | 72.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…f6c4backed Yes | 29c | 70.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67a…d8e2backed Yes | 15c | 65.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2120…bba9backed Yes | 19c | 52.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed No | 79c | 35.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 30.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 75c | 29.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…cd90backed No | 70c | 24.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 74c | 21.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…9c69backed No | 79c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…3724backed No | 53c | 19.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 77c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 18%+?this page
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%?Yes won
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 15-18%?No won
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9-12%?No won
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by <9%?No won
- Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.