World Politics · resolved market
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by <9%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x281b216205d45a69ad0abe777df68a68547888e0f6222d44cb0dbad76224f449
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd81b…5e32backed Yes | 44c | 4,892$2,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,170.68 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 28c | 2,114$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.75 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…4940backed Yes | 41c | 1,824$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed Yes | 39c | 1,451$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 20c | 1,367$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.8 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7664…2e50backed Yes | 32c | 1,143$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.87 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…ac27backed Yes | 2c | 609.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…6b6ebacked Yes | 39c | 584.98$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 569.68$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.35 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed No | 61c | 567$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +176.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…15bdbacked No | 61c | 566$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 61c | 563$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.57 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 463.47$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.72 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 6c | 447.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 399.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 34c | 316.82$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.02 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 306.56$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.89 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 60c | 291.97$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.95 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 43c | 260$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d77…4ae5backed Yes | 43c | 231.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 43c | 198.05$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.17 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d4…84a1backed Yes | 31c | 167$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Yes | 38c | 131.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 59c | 125.19$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked Yes | 39c | 124$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 39c | 121$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…d650backed No | 63c | 116.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 59c | 114$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 61c | 107.64$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 105.72$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 33c | 100.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 38c | 94.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…8b5abacked Yes | 38c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 77.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5076…1d96backed Yes | 39c | 76.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 27c | 73.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 55c | 58.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 46.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Yes | 40c | 46.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe64…50f9backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab99…2c8bbacked No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcecd…c518backed Yes | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 37c | 35.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 60c | 33.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0758…34ebbacked No | 65c | 31.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 35c | 31.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ce…ea8dbacked Yes | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…86b6backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef5…e940backed No | 61c | 28.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 73c | 28.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9eed…928bbacked Yes | 41c | 27.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2323…e4b5backed Yes | 37c | 27.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d68…3642backed No | 62c | 26.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920c…09d1backed Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 60c | 21.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…07bbbacked No | 62c | 20.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed No | 74c | 20.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8127…d2d3backed No | 62c | 18.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…5327backed No | 61c | 18.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc68d…1ad1backed No | 61c | 16.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by <9%?this page
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%?Yes won
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 15-18%?No won
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 18%+?No won
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9-12%?No won
- Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.