World Politics · resolved market
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcec9024b36a711d9dec8494a0caaffc94166f2736f1cef4e54f7b50d22df4881
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $276,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $314,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 63c | 32,030$20,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,995.01 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 66c | 26,582$17,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,673.08 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94c4…43cabacked Yes | 33c | 24,593$8,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,361.65 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…afa6backed Yes | 59c | 13,706$8,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,597.98 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked No | 49c | 10,375$5,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,045.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 63c | 4,070$2,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.48 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 8c | 3,687$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.08 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e07…3545backed Yes | 58c | 3,545$2,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,476.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed Yes | 11c | 3,415$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,036.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked No | 8c | 2,819$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.89 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…931abacked No | 9c | 2,507$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd566…3e2dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,778$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,655.28 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 11c | 1,502$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +507%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed Yes | 37c | 1,396$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.46 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…48c1backed No | 45c | 1,391$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…3ffcbacked No | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…a678backed Yes | 9c | 1,236$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.45 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +66%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 74c | 1,002$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.86 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…e2b0backed No | 8c | 888$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 71c | 808.07$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.97 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…6b6ebacked Yes | 16c | 775.01$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d4…9b17backed Yes | 29c | 722.74$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.74 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 2c | 692.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 12c | 640.96$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6112…1ae7backed Yes | 26c | 568.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +154.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba4…4f6bbacked Yes | 13c | 540.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 8c | 513.66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.22 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 64c | 485.18$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.09 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 2c | 450$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 69c | 447.88$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.88 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…a020backed Yes | 14c | 427.78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 16c | 369.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.79 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 12cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 24c | 356.7$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.86 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 17c | 346.52$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.34 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked No | 14c | 326.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 53c | 302.05$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.94 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 9c | 268.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5076…1d96backed Yes | 52c | 264.21$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 9c | 258.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.68 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 244.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.32 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 228.5$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.45 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b9…f31cbacked No | 5c | 223.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 49c | 222$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.83 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 24c | 208.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 12c | 189.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.56 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4d…2173backed Yes | 11c | 169.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.77 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 8c | 161.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 160.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.3 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedda…2e39backed No | 70c | 142.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 9c | 136.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.32 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 15c | 113.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…f6c4backed Yes | 18c | 112.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.63 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 14c | 101.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.68 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10de…a9f6backed Yes | 21c | 97.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83db…e775backed Yes | 12c | 80.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +167.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 28c | 79.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…c8f4backed Yes | 26c | 76.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2120…bba9backed Yes | 57c | 70.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…3724backed Yes | 42c | 69.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…e7cabacked Yes | 46c | 68.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 55c | 52.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 31c | 41.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 36.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 77c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 52c | 29.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab03…358bbacked Yes | 40c | 26.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%?this page
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 15-18%?No won
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 18%+?No won
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9-12%?No won
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by <9%?No won
- Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.