TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xab03…358b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
73
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: World Politics, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 57 out of 100; worst Commodities at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4161%25 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+58.2%+$14.74
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.97
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+72.8%+$7.37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+109.8%+$14.56
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+55.2%+$5.85
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.73
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.9
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.34
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+48%+$12.53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.87
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+34.6%+$22.62
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+46.3%+$9.11
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+52.2%+$30.44
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+29%+$3.54
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+40.4%+$13.96
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+41%+$5.02
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.46
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.79
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+60.1%+$11.87
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.91
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.08
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.06
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+43.3%+$19.94
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+60.2%+$31.2
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+146.2%+$22.95
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+17.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.49
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+40.7%+$10.58
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.47
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.9
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.67
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+84.4%+$15.29
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+49.6%+$6.92
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+54.3%+$7.37
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+38%+$8.69
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+39.3%+$17.89
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+149.3%+$16.03
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.09
Will Tisza win at least 120 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+99.4%+$15.73
Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+151.3%+$32.43
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+66%+$7.45
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.48
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+72.2%+$7.36
Will SPD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$7.74
All 18 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+74.6%+$13.67
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+37.6%+$12.46
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+52.2%+$8.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+44.7%+$11.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+32.5%+$3.37
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.1%+$5.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+26.1%+$3.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.03
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.