Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a9f4ed65ec04eb3545607dacd2a0e64356557b702af3713529d2461ccfc52e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a49…54adbacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…c236backed Yes | 15c | 1,513$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.21 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 1,427$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,360$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d0…88f6backed Yes | 3c | 1,120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 59c | 1,008$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.29 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…812cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,007$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 4c | 597.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed No | 68c | 448.85$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.52 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked Yes | 21c | 389.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 3c | 355$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 19c | 335.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 71c | 297.98$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.12 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 237.59$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…274cbacked Yes | 5c | 230$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 43c | 211$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.73 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 172.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 172.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae1…be54backed Yes | 7c | 165$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 16c | 157$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 46c | 153.38$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d0…2295backed Yes | 33c | 150.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5843…2808backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…cf37backed No | 72c | 139.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 125.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 122.94$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 105.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…2912backed Yes | 14c | 105.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 34c | 102.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…5842backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1520…4218backed No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 17c | 99.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…c213backed Yes | 11c | 95.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +4.5wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +367%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…ab93backed Yes | 13c | 95.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Yes | 12c | 85.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 66c | 72.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 35c | 70.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 15c | 69.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 30c | 66.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 65.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 31c | 57.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 44c | 56.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 39c | 49.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 31c | 48.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 52c | 48.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 29c | 42.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x036a…6d02backed Yes | 48c | 41.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 31c | 37.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e02abacked Yes | 42c | 37.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 37c | 36.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…f2e3backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 49c | 29.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 27.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…ba17backed Yes | 39c | 25.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 68c | 25.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 70c | 22.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 73c | 20.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 60c | 19.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 19.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 19°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.