Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C or higher on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x420403d72aea982e5cc84162f5f85a755195cc33d55a781dd967962e4845493f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 2,286$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 11c | 1,097$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745b…0b9abacked Yes | 29c | 884.09$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.24 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 19c | 766.07$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.35 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 17c | 717.04$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.64 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 30c | 714.93$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.11 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 41c | 702.53$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.76 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 13c | 623.77$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…2912backed No | 78c | 546.68$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.87 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed Yes | 3c | 482.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 19c | 456.83$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 79c | 446.18$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.92 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…812cbacked Yes | 28c | 360.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 52c | 345.07$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.3 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 308.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed Yes | 48c | 271.02$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.82 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 252.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 16c | 246.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 80c | 216$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 214.48$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 31c | 192.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…f7edbacked No | 77c | 180.56$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…36b3backed No | 75c | 172.76$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 11c | 167.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 52c | 150.41$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.93 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 149.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 65c | 145.75$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed Yes | 9c | 145.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…4cfcbacked Yes | 20c | 137.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed No | 78c | 128.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 16c | 108.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 19c | 104.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 61c | 98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 87.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…b0c6backed Yes | 17c | 86.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14dc…f468backed Yes | 22c | 79.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 40c | 49.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 26c | 49.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed No | 51c | 47.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c0…5d30backed Yes | 37c | 44.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 34c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 40c | 36.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 69c | 34.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 39c | 33.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 69c | 29.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 48c | 25.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7625…11debacked Yes | 48c | 21.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed Yes | 62c | 20.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C or higher on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 19°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.