Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae859ccc74371e952e29a0758989f20bc6c647288270a6a3ee2fd8a8023d69f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 2,286$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 34c | 793.34$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.88 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745b…0b9abacked Yes | 34c | 733.35$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.05 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 16c | 613.64$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed No | 60c | 450$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.9 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 11c | 430.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 323.23$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.31 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 265.83$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 8c | 241.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 237.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 21c | 213.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 199.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…812cbacked Yes | 37c | 196.07$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 173.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed Yes | 51c | 151.26$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…cf37backed No | 76c | 130.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 27c | 123.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.08 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 19c | 119.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.49 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 43c | 114.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 55c | 109.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 79c | 103.71$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 44c | 100.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 95.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 33c | 95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 75c | 92.36$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 90$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 36c | 74.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43c0…5d30backed No | 40c | 68.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 21c | 57.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 32c | 56.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…ea3fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Yes | 48c | 41.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 52c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 40.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 25c | 39.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked No | 35c | 35.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 34.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 22.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…b989backed No | 80c | 18.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 75c | 18.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8001…c76fbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 74c | 14.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed Yes | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 19°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.