Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd945551f9bbca2bfb6ef19f4ee529a8fd32f8adf9d51ef3aa9ea79e04f19496e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,332 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 4,163$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.95 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 3c | 4,034$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 3c | 1,602$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 4c | 1,585$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 4c | 1,569$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b00…43ecbacked Yes | 1c | 1,136$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,011$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 983.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 971.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 2c | 865.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…e2dbbacked Yes | 2c | 851.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes | 11c | 607.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…b86fbacked Yes | 14c | 583.7$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 531.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 2c | 528.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed Yes | 6c | 335.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 5c | 330.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 5c | 325$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…fb84backed Yes | 4c | 322.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 4c | 248$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 6c | 221.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…5b4abacked Yes | 9c | 219.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 208$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…359cbacked Yes | 7c | 204.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 200.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 10c | 166.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 9c | 150.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…c213backed Yes | 12c | 145.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +4.5wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +367%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb30d…d6c4backed Yes | 17c | 128.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 10c | 126.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f77…6631backed Yes | 18c | 110.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 17c | 100.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 78c | 20.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.