Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86995f87e329063b2801441dc34d106b58f0009741ad7fb72a2f58d3715cc606
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,334 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a79…c875backed No | 1c | 2,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab2…676ebacked No | 15c | 1,120$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 1,086$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…c8bdbacked No | 65c | 976.63$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.93 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 77c | 948.83$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.69 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 910.57$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.75 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db9…8b0fbacked Yes | 13c | 909.86$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.46 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…3ef0backed Yes | 30c | 830.16$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac5…852cbacked No | 70c | 812.02$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.47 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 78c | 758.02$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.31 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 12c | 714.83$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.83 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 16c | 668.42$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.5 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 9c | 665.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.58 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 26c | 621.03$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 16c | 553.02$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.28 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed No | 56c | 549.92$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.22 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 10c | 504.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.55 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 68c | 502.67$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.21 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 79c | 479.49$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.05 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…c153backed Yes | 16c | 452.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.24 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 22c | 443.11$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.04 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 74c | 433.75$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.49 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 425.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.73 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 22c | 402.24$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.15 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 70c | 391.75$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.53 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 40c | 388.6$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.6 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x686c…c25fbacked Yes | 66c | 378.91$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 9c | 364.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.69 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 16c | 362.32$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.57 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 56c | 359.78$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.21 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…9782backed No | 79c | 323.91$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed No | 78c | 304.92$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.26 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 17c | 300$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 282.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes | 25c | 278.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.36 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…0d0cbacked Yes | 11c | 276.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +206.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 268.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.55 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc170…939bbacked No | 42c | 265.74$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 257.85$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 17c | 234.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.42 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 233.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 232.11$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.84 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 8c | 222$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.24 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 11c | 218$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.1 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 39c | 216.06$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 5c | 213.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.12 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 14c | 210.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.85 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…fb84backed Yes | 13c | 208.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.54 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 208$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 202.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 6c | 199.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.98 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 59c | 199.76$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.83 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 14c | 195.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.48 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 20c | 193.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.14 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 12c | 193.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.44 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 11c | 188.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.39 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 18c | 166.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.65 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 46c | 166.34$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 165.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.08 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 159.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.76 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 15c | 154$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.3 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a0a4backed Yes | 33c | 153.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.09 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 31c | 142.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.43 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…54e1backed Yes | 11c | 133.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.07 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f6…c4fbbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 77c | 130$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 129.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.59 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…3ba6backed Yes | 76c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 13c | 113.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.83 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…b948backed Yes | 19c | 105.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…41d2backed Yes | 65c | 102.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 70c | 102.1$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…7003backed Yes | 20c | 100.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.81 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 30c | 100.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.44 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…48a3backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +346.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c3…6077backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +197.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 19c | 97.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.03 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb2…21cbbacked Yes | 56c | 92$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…2aedbacked No | 22c | 89.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 71c | 88.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 73c | 88.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 80c | 86.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 69c | 84.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb367…629dbacked Yes | 26c | 78.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 73c | 76.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67c…30d0backed Yes | 33c | 76.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…5effbacked Yes | 28c | 70.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 55c | 67.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…359cbacked Yes | 33c | 67.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 33c | 62.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd30…4dadbacked Yes | 26c | 58.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.