Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x572e3bcf4efa92074e4712208de2716a95e7ab461a704ab122400e51b26965ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 2,244$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 2,073$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 3c | 953.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 8c | 906.72$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e02abacked Yes | 16c | 818.82$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.2 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 25c | 711.34$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.21 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 75c | 659$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.43 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 3c | 656.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 616.49$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.02 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…a2f3backed Yes | 16c | 599.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…ca56backed Yes | 16c | 599.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e0…1affbacked Yes | 9c | 584.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7908…4f35backed Yes | 4c | 516.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…e2dbbacked Yes | 36c | 506.93$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 33c | 499.88$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.69 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 22c | 431.32$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.63 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 35c | 370$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…9037backed No | 75c | 359.42$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.51 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 38c | 355.25$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.91 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 5c | 351.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 349.33$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 43c | 332.38$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.43 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 310.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x686c…c25fbacked Yes | 23c | 299.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 14c | 299.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 71c | 284.22$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.51 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 40c | 282.91$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.38 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…b1bfbacked Yes | 36c | 281.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 76c | 264.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 238.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed Yes | 17c | 237.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 20c | 229.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 26c | 218$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 25c | 202.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 28c | 180$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 21c | 177.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 40c | 176.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5421…3b38backed Yes | 20c | 165.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec5d…11d5backed No | 68c | 160.64$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 156.13$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33e…c742backed Yes | 33c | 150.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…2317backed Yes | 28c | 149.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db9…8b0fbacked Yes | 33c | 135$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 77c | 134.7$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 76c | 131.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb367…629dbacked Yes | 31c | 127.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 122.54$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 61c | 114.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 67c | 111.02$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 22c | 104.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e4…8171backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…fb84backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dea…8f0ebacked No | 74c | 99.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…158ebacked Yes | 21c | 96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 91.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 34c | 91.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 64c | 88.93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 42c | 84.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…c671backed No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…c006backed No | 63c | 79.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 32c | 78.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…c918backed Yes | 26c | 77.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c25…3703backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…589ebacked Yes | 32c | 74.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26a3…94ebbacked No | 77c | 74.47$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 73.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 72.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 28c | 69.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…9b43backed Yes | 19c | 69.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…887dbacked Yes | 20c | 67.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb60…1938backed Yes | 28c | 67.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed No | 75c | 66.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb30d…d6c4backed Yes | 43c | 66.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 78c | 65.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2e…b010backed Yes | 31c | 63.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 69c | 62.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 65c | 61.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2152…c47ebacked No | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…c8bdbacked Yes | 29c | 58.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6d…ea42backed Yes | 37c | 54.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…0e3abacked Yes | 26c | 52.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3581…7427backed Yes | 39c | 51.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…c246backed Yes | 22c | 51.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdefc…c010backed No | 72c | 51.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf1…71febacked Yes | 20c | 51.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…3387backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94c6…7a14backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb2…21cbbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 32c | 49.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.