Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe77d3dd40cb24b88e3e23a7540e647ddf7ebe46b014dbfbc2e7f7d00861efc8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,648 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4ae…a3efbacked Yes | 3c | 865.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x212f…e299backed Yes | 8c | 722.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33e…c742backed Yes | 43c | 557.04$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 49c | 503.18$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.61 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 9c | 488.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 48c | 472.02$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 470.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 58c | 452$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.13 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed No | 76c | 400$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 19c | 382.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 57c | 361.71$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.94 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 46c | 352.68$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.81 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 43c | 347.43$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.39 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 312.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 301.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 57c | 300.85$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 19c | 284.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 50c | 238.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3efd…b982backed Yes | 18c | 226.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 220.83$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.11 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 46c | 220.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 50c | 218$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.69 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 17c | 217.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 208$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 44c | 201.88$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b66…95c0backed No | 50c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…fb84backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 21c | 199.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed No | 52c | 199.96$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.98 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 14c | 198.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…c5e1backed Yes | 45c | 197.04$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.85 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4722…36bbbacked No | 53c | 189.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 37c | 185.93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 39c | 185.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…a5d4backed Yes | 8c | 181.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 24c | 180.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 17c | 166.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 65c | 164.98$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e02abacked Yes | 18c | 163.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…29bfbacked Yes | 31c | 161.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 161.41$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 42c | 161$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a0a4backed Yes | 31c | 160.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 38c | 156.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.53 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…c006backed Yes | 39c | 154.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 19c | 150.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…2317backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…c153backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 41c | 149.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 50c | 145.58$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.19 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e0…1affbacked Yes | 14c | 145.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 41c | 137.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7765…99b4backed Yes | 44c | 133.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 132.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 12c | 130$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 36c | 120.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 51c | 112.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 62c | 110.63$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db9…8b0fbacked Yes | 54c | 110.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 80c | 109$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…b86fbacked Yes | 28c | 107.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3912…5fc7backed Yes | 44c | 101.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f9…1a73backed Yes | 70c | 101.38$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.57 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 28c | 100.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed Yes | 31c | 100.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…b101backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…589ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f6…c4fbbacked Yes | 52c | 96.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Yes | 53c | 93.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…c246backed Yes | 20c | 93.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…36cabacked No | 56c | 90.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 23c | 90.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…aa62backed Yes | 17c | 88.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes | 51c | 85.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…6a06backed Yes | 30c | 83.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 50c | 81.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…2aedbacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x686c…c25fbacked Yes | 15c | 79.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf10…557ebacked No | 31c | 65.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 48c | 64.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf1…71febacked Yes | 63c | 63.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…661fbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +86%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…1c9dbacked Yes | 34c | 59.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 59.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…1a46backed Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 27c | 58.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 43c | 58.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…4076backed Yes | 52c | 58.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 54c | 55.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb367…629dbacked Yes | 36c | 55.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…6badbacked Yes | 52c | 54.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3a…b9e6backed Yes | 51c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…43aabacked Yes | 29c | 51.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b97…e838backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.