Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbc9ef45cad5fbb3a8873320bd1449ff1e0a090cb9d38934cd725109ff9aee8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 1c | 5,227$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdac…3eb5backed Yes | 0c | 4,640$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 73c | 679.31$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.76 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 79c | 347.01$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.16 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 290$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 12c | 276.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 5c | 231.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 218.32$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.4 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 12c | 191$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 70c | 190.14$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 75c | 187.02$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…c213backed Yes | 10c | 179.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +4.5wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +367%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 168.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01a…a222backed Yes | 7c | 157.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 26c | 156.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 147.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 125.69$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 21c | 116.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 26c | 115.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 20c | 114.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 112.37$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 104.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 97.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 31c | 96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…5b3bbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 26c | 73.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 23c | 59.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…2d82backed No | 71c | 57.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 35c | 55.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 35c | 54.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked Yes | 28c | 49.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 47.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed Yes | 26c | 47.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…b9a1backed Yes | 40c | 46.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 25c | 46.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 38c | 45.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x601d…0afdbacked Yes | 29c | 40.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 39.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 30c | 35.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 35c | 29.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 38c | 28.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.