Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2522bbd963518d3892ec381a188758a6b93a6aea28c703f6e2acff2c32d8fa4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 1c | 3,253$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 1,118$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Yes | 5c | 998.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc801…cefebacked Yes | 5c | 998.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…b5b2backed Yes | 5c | 998.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b7…dc81backed Yes | 5c | 998.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4725…8bf2backed Yes | 5c | 998.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672c…6942backed Yes | 5c | 998.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf8…8634backed Yes | 5c | 998.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…e225backed Yes | 5c | 998.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 40c | 519.48$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.87 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 52c | 427.71$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.74 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 9c | 416$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 380$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 18c | 341.13$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.85 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…c236backed Yes | 71c | 306$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.16 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 42c | 277.13$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.64 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…5a06backed Yes | 18c | 258.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 66c | 246.27$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.57 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 9c | 222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 56c | 204.08$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.75 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 46c | 201.38$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.17 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed Yes | 9c | 186.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 145.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 141.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 67c | 140.96$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 11c | 129.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 33c | 97.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 61c | 94.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 85.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 59c | 81.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed No | 46c | 80.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 77.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked Yes | 70c | 74.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 73.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce1…bf19backed Yes | 66c | 69.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 69.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 47c | 64.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 39c | 59.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 68c | 54.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 20c | 52.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 51.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…675dbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 48c | 46.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 43.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…fd4ebacked Yes | 27c | 41.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 29c | 39.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 35c | 39.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed Yes | 38c | 38.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed No | 54c | 35.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 73c | 35.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 57c | 34.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed Yes | 48c | 30.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01a…a222backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…e75dbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ef…ff60backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 70c | 29.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d0…88f6backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7f…7076backed Yes | 49c | 23.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 52c | 23.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 22.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 75c | 21.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed Yes | 73c | 20.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 53c | 20.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.