IPO · resolved market
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c0f7b3e7d7872ffd80845fd3f6650cdebe901c01d9ba9a6f246e9c3e1898695
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ff1…7234backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 27c | 5,743$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,565.67 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked No | 36c | 3,914$1,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,491.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe056…8120backed No | 51c | 3,079$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 73c | 2,951$2,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4795…2ae4backed No | 77c | 2,787$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…5868backed No | 9c | 2,000$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +734.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…ff3bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 7c | 1,881$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x737e…bee0backed Yes | 24c | 1,661$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 60c | 1,641$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a3…a4e1backed Yes | 51c | 1,455$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 1,347$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.72 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 38c | 1,262$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 35c | 1,210$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…a7edbacked Yes | 26c | 1,105$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 6c | 1,100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +689.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked No | 56c | 1,100$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.63 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 59c | 1,007$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.37 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.6 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…0155backed No | 2c | 992.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +4,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14c0…28f4backed Yes | 53c | 961.25$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa0…efa4backed No | 66c | 877.09$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +116%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x754c…068fbacked Yes | 2c | 873.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…25a4backed No | 9c | 800$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +975.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 30c | 715.93$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3535…75b2backed Yes | 2c | 700$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…a4d6backed Yes | 45c | 692.92$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…86b9backed Yes | 63c | 687.43$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked Yes | 33c | 687.27$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked No | 12c | 679.87$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.27 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +5.7wins | +0.52per pick | 39cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 667.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8da…d488backed Yes | 30c | 658.37$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 60c | 612.85$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +255.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…685bbacked Yes | 5c | 592.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 18c | 569.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 20c | 530.66$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.94 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…6564backed Yes | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.94 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 470$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.18 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 67c | 462.99$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.32 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e3…e379backed No | 65c | 459.78$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x557d…c29dbacked Yes | 10c | 436.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…812cbacked Yes | 31c | 378.59$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.23 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…c213backed Yes | 8c | 378.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 47c | 374.99$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb528…5039backed No | 56c | 354.78$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2c…e5f0backed No | 58c | 345.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6053…2c5fbacked Yes | 20c | 341.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…0266backed Yes | 25c | 336$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb368…9734backed Yes | 7c | 314.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 277.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e98…bf05backed Yes | 42c | 267$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 4c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f29…6a9bbacked Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x320b…6057backed Yes | 57c | 246.57$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ced…6c81backed Yes | 16c | 243.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 40c | 242.45$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.62 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…01c0backed No | 45c | 225.74$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…49bbbacked Yes | 36c | 199.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…906bbacked No | 56c | 195.78$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +68%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 75c | 151.22$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x523a…8e28backed Yes | 41c | 139.22$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7081…818bbacked No | 57c | 113.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…b35ebacked No | 34c | 107.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +193.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9c…2aeebacked Yes | 61c | 106.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c50…22fdbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 59c | 83.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c30…7673backed Yes | 37c | 79.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb0…8a46backed No | 73c | 65.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536c…3f59backed Yes | 38c | 52.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 54c | 50.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 42c | 47.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…6dfebacked Yes | 58c | 42.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 37.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked No | 64c | 31.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…5d1ebacked No | 51c | 30.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…3392backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed2…e4b7backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Cerebras not IPO before July 2026?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $80B and $90B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $90B and $100B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.