TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

IPO · resolved market

Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$90,348
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,650

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,348 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in IPO
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ff1…7234backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed Yes27c5,743$1,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,565.671915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-78.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked No36c3,914$1,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,491.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+175.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe056…8120backed No51c3,079$1,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed Yes1c3,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363740.5%15 W · 22 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd555…e28abacked No73c2,951$2,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.851145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4795…2ae4backed No77c2,787$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.342100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef1f…5868backed No9c2,000$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,828.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+734.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd08…ff3bbacked Yes4c2,000$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes6c2,000$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-36%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes7c1,881$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.05933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x737e…bee0backed Yes24c1,661$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No60c1,641$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.91771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+61.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0a3…a4e1backed Yes51c1,455$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes28c1,347$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.721926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.8wins-0.20per pick46cpaid-63.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes38c1,262$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe397…bfcbbacked No35c1,210$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.57825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x693c…a7edbacked Yes26c1,105$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc03…f66fbacked No6c1,100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick5cpaid+689.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93ef…468bbacked No56c1,100$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.63812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-77.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed No59c1,007$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.371040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes18c1,000$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.614425.7%37 W · 107 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x79ad…0155backed No2c992.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.831100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.98per pick2cpaid+4,900%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14c0…28f4backed Yes53c961.25$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.72333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+66.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa0…efa4backed No66c877.09$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.212100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+116%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x754c…068fbacked Yes2c873.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82ed…25a4backed No9c800$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+975.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes30c715.93$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3535…75b2backed Yes2c700$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a89…a4d6backed Yes45c692.92$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.76425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x551a…86b9backed Yes63c687.43$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.851040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked Yes33c687.27$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.98714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick42cpaid-80.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f9b…a68cbacked No12c679.87$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.271190.9%10 W · 1 L+5.7wins+0.52per pick39cpaid+165.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c667.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.341274.7%6 W · 121 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-83.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8da…d488backed Yes30c658.37$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No60c612.85$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.86560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+255.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd30…685bbacked Yes5c592.54$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes18c569.48$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002548%12 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes20c530.66$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.943517.1%6 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-73.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7447…6564backed Yes36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.941010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-79%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No63c470$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.183452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No67c462.99$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.321866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5e3…e379backed No65c459.78$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x557d…c29dbacked Yes10c436.8$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ef…812cbacked Yes31c378.59$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.231225%3 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-66%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f01…c213backed Yes8c378.35$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No47c374.99$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.46944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb528…5039backed No56c354.78$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea2c…e5f0backed No58c345.4$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6053…2c5fbacked Yes20c341.77$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c23…0266backed Yes25c336$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb368…9734backed Yes7c314.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c277.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.87610%0 W · 61 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e98…bf05backed Yes42c267$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes4c250$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.222123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f29…6a9bbacked Yes5c250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x320b…6057backed Yes57c246.57$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ced…6c81backed Yes16c243.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4388…5050backed Yes40c242.45$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.627346.6%34 W · 39 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb70…01c0backed No45c225.74$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.26450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26a4…49bbbacked Yes36c199.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…906bbacked No56c195.78$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.29540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+68%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No75c151.22$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.441241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick32cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes42c150$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.853225%8 W · 24 L-5.5wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-40.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x523a…8e28backed Yes41c139.22$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7081…818bbacked No57c113.64$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.87633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+29.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ad3…b35ebacked No34c107.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+193.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a9c…2aeebacked Yes61c106.15$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c50…22fdbacked Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d21…b569backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No59c83.8$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.41475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c30…7673backed Yes37c79.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.25666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb0…8a46backed No73c65.86$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.01250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x536c…3f59backed Yes38c52.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes54c50.13$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.97475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes43c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No42c47.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.32650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa314…6dfebacked Yes58c42.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No79c37.24$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.781136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-49.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf129…1edcbacked No64c31.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.45540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc507…5d1ebacked No51c30.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.79333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52055%11 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a91…3392backed Yes52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ed2…e4b7backed Yes69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.