IPO · resolved market
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1e7272ae46036d81926b8b53a68e0c3e04a9254505b3841b7c49da1cb3fb3a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7447…6564backed Yes | 5c | 4,666$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.08 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…d620backed Yes | 13c | 2,605$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.14 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 72c | 2,193$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 16c | 1,453$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0a…46a4backed Yes | 16c | 1,453$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 3c | 1,350$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 21c | 1,328$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.26 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.2 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 3c | 999.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14c0…28f4backed Yes | 12c | 803.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6069…1549backed Yes | 17c | 580.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 18c | 500$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe056…8120backed Yes | 12c | 373.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 14c | 347.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 15c | 292.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…225ebacked Yes | 24c | 272$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 61c | 230$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.93 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 15c | 206$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399b…35cdbacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc30d…c27ebacked Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x193f…dd5dbacked No | 76c | 198$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326b…33ebbacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536c…3f59backed Yes | 33c | 152.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…9ec7backed Yes | 35c | 141.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…906bbacked Yes | 8c | 136.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +68%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 15c | 134.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b8…5571backed Yes | 17c | 119.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…685bbacked Yes | 17c | 90.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadae…bc30backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3267…2f71backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x310a…91f3backed Yes | 33c | 60.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4dc…86dfbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…ec34backed No | 76c | 48.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 68c | 45.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 65c | 40.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 79c | 38.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 76c | 33.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 70c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 69c | 17.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 69c | 17.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Cerebras not IPO before July 2026?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $80B and $90B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $90B and $100B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.