IPO · resolved market
Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe22d15069534dc1985522ecaf58fe03bf5c001b2f7b9fbf6fd13e95d3c5e4dc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6acd…acdcbacked Yes | 14c | 5,805$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…5c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 4,200$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fb…a324backed Yes | 0c | 3,217$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…a5c3backed Yes | 5c | 2,861$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 3c | 2,629$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7081…818bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,141$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2d…7089backed Yes | 7c | 1,874$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 16c | 1,519$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.49 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed No | 75c | 1,327$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…a04bbacked Yes | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…c629backed Yes | 8c | 811$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 799.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81e7…7389backed No | 65c | 643.47$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 15c | 620.82$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x310a…91f3backed Yes | 8c | 517.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…5d1ebacked Yes | 7c | 499.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d61…8e37backed Yes | 11c | 412.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc333…543ebacked Yes | 11c | 410.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3a…7c5dbacked Yes | 9c | 292.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 285.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5dba…d397backed Yes | 8c | 227$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e81…7db5backed Yes | 18c | 170.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 12c | 137.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 123.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…e0cbbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d2…c8a1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6069…1549backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd436…f521backed Yes | 15c | 99.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…01c0backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8386…c2f2backed Yes | 27c | 42.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x947a…1a14backed Yes | 26c | 40.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Cerebras not IPO before July 2026?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $80B and $90B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $90B and $100B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.