IPO · resolved market
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca79115f670c5015a773b201ecace1a465c35766dd0cf569d64c1110a3788c69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 67c | 2,753$1,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,854.87 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 41c | 2,381$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 2c | 2,330$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…d620backed Yes | 40c | 2,068$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.43 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 1,598$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.93 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…9fbcbacked Yes | 14c | 1,513$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +608.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…6564backed Yes | 48c | 1,152$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.04 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed No | 1c | 1,047$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 54c | 1,034$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 71c | 945.99$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.15 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 73c | 787.31$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 32c | 783.99$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.94 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 33c | 750$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…c1bebacked No | 61c | 612.66$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 79c | 533$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6069…1549backed Yes | 26c | 510$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 24c | 475.75$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.57 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c0…28f4backed Yes | 20c | 434.07$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…1a36backed Yes | 51c | 422.74$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 418.75$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.25 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 414$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.79 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 65c | 318.4$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.46 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 17c | 317.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e81…7db5backed Yes | 32c | 315.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 43c | 283.48$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.42 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 46c | 273.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 269.73$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.31 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 230$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.41 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc724…3a19backed Yes | 24c | 198$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 70c | 187.83$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 162.4$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked Yes | 38c | 150$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 39c | 148.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…906bbacked Yes | 15c | 135.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +68%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 31c | 134.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 127.35$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d1…5287backed No | 55c | 125$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 18c | 122.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.83 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4315…698abacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 120$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.75 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 69c | 110.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 108.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed No | 66c | 89.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc333…543ebacked Yes | 35c | 86.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 25c | 80.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 51c | 78.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 79c | 65.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 24c | 65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…01c0backed No | 56c | 57.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…ec34backed No | 79c | 57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3267…2f71backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c2…bb4fbacked Yes | 40c | 50.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…4805backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf212…a810backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +204%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +100%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c0…7927backed Yes | 30c | 45.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +230.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x310a…91f3backed Yes | 24c | 41.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 61c | 39.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 38.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3a…7c5dbacked No | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 70c | 29.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 61c | 27.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 32 | 93.8%30 W · 2 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 73cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Cerebras not IPO before July 2026?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $80B and $90B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $90B and $100B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.