IPO · resolved market
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $80B and $90B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b3f884bfca73cf90f535206c06d214acf571ca2137cc6694a98ca66904a4355
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 13c | 3,931$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.29 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 11c | 2,025$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…d620backed Yes | 6c | 1,205$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6053…2c5fbacked Yes | 19c | 514.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…6564backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 420.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6069…1549backed Yes | 12c | 405.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 12c | 400$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…86b9backed Yes | 10c | 358.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…326bbacked Yes | 4c | 299.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 27c | 275$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 14c | 213.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 209$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…685bbacked Yes | 15c | 190$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 167.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 11c | 136$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdd…0448backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe056…8120backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b8…5571backed Yes | 12c | 97.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 15c | 82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -5.9wins | -0.37per pick | 43cpaid | -92%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…906bbacked Yes | 14c | 73.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +68%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a0…6305backed Yes | 25c | 60.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 75c | 54.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 78c | 33.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 70c | 31.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $80B and $90B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Cerebras not IPO before July 2026?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $90B and $100B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.