IPO · resolved market
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d255f85e731ca1045b51eda994deacac6257ff686201f6354f6c2518dc02916
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 79c | 2,792$2,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.08 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7081…818bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,979$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 2c | 1,901$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2190…bc21backed Yes | 13c | 1,561$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2937…ad07backed Yes | 31c | 982.22$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…d5f8backed Yes | 8c | 973.28$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…d620backed Yes | 7c | 954.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 22c | 750$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.29 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 6c | 733$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +133%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 694.99$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.55 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 3c | 623.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 581.26$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.25 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 72c | 559$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed No | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…5d1ebacked Yes | 25c | 499.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 77c | 499$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 465$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.05 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed No | 69c | 433.28$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 23c | 373.2$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 5c | 320.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…1a36backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e81…7db5backed Yes | 27c | 296.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 270.87$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.73 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 27c | 267.53$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 211.64$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77aa…8d9cbacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…8bc9backed No | 68c | 199.98$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc333…543ebacked Yes | 30c | 199.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Yes | 31c | 194.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6069…1549backed Yes | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 29c | 135.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7225…3d5bbacked Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 123.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 116$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 21c | 94.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…e17fbacked Yes | 12c | 94.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +73%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed No | 79c | 89.04$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 79.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 71c | 62.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038e…fed3backed Yes | 32c | 62.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 73c | 52.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf8…5ec7backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c2…bb4fbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf30…f208backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…865bbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…762dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 70c | 19.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Cerebras not IPO before July 2026?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $80B and $90B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $90B and $100B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.