IPO · resolved market
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $90B and $100B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bbe814cfb61caec8cfdbe2749e9d5bdf5cc39145c7211fb6fd5cf6a51b8cc0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 7c | 9,727$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.14 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,998$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4795…2ae4backed No | 80c | 1,949$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 10c | 1,903$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed Yes | 1c | 1,850$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8934…a13cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,431$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4666…c42fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,227$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,200$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 1c | 1,049$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 14c | 846.04$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 23c | 716$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fb…a324backed Yes | 1c | 701.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x737e…bee0backed Yes | 16c | 567.75$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…86b9backed Yes | 10c | 549.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6053…2c5fbacked Yes | 19c | 522.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…6564backed Yes | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…a4d6backed Yes | 17c | 463.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 20c | 424.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 77c | 322.89$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…685bbacked Yes | 10c | 270$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e3…e379backed No | 77c | 265$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…0266backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 236.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 8c | 230$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 219$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 22c | 184.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 13c | 183$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f29…6a9bbacked Yes | 7c | 168.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 71c | 127.94$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed Yes | 9c | 121$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…b858backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 16c | 98.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…906bbacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +68%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Yes | 15c | 69.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade9…6f2abacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…3392backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 76c | 20.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $90B and $100B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Cerebras not IPO before July 2026?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $80B and $90B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.