Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19e071071c7df550121258717632a4aa1c8fd13fcf54a667657e46bd15994a81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,068 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x625a…8410backed No | 0c | 76,000$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 6c | 3,013$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.36 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 79c | 2,545$2,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.79 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 25c | 2,161$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.86 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…c213backed Yes | 29c | 1,898$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.43 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +4.5wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +367%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 51c | 1,865$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.72 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 1,270$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 26c | 1,245$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.27 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…5d9dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,090$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +204.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7b…5838backed Yes | 78c | 720.73$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 5c | 621.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 50c | 595.55$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.16 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e5…f992backed Yes | 33c | 594.69$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 16c | 555.8$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.15 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…c236backed Yes | 19c | 545.73$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 541.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.13 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…61babacked Yes | 16c | 502.62$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.91 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…fb84backed No | 75c | 500$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.56 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef8…7a57backed Yes | 80c | 470.57$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes | 53c | 469.18$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.18 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 80c | 446.55$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.62 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed Yes | 42c | 435.69$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.66 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed Yes | 9c | 432.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.39 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed No | 3c | 406.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 405.26$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 12c | 395.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.53 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 20c | 387.84$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.3 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 30c | 363.06$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.65 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 8c | 353.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 55c | 351.34$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.65 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 13c | 327.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.93 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 25c | 276.12$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.49 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 42c | 255.58$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.49 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 29c | 250.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.49 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 57c | 216.43$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.39 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 215.16$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 23c | 204.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.19 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 53c | 188.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.23 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 64c | 162.3$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 55c | 157.77$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.55 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 72c | 157$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…b30dbacked No | 54c | 149.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.85 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3f…5e3abacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…d590backed Yes | 30c | 130$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf585…aae1backed Yes | 16c | 119.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.08 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 117$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Yes | 44c | 112.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd077…46c0backed No | 22c | 107.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 40c | 106.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed No | 46c | 106.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 67c | 101.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 100.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a4…418ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 17c | 95.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…a5d4backed Yes | 69c | 85.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x678d…bce9backed No | 80c | 81.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…d91bbacked Yes | 48c | 80.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 78.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 27c | 74.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…5c4fbacked Yes | 14c | 69.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 31c | 69.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 32c | 69.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5648…ae7dbacked No | 19c | 61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 59.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 43c | 55.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…c957backed Yes | 40c | 53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 52.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed Yes | 29c | 50.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf927…10bcbacked Yes | 40c | 49.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 29c | 49.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 27c | 48.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 46c | 43.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 66c | 41.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 53c | 39.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 63c | 39.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 37c | 38.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…618dbacked Yes | 31c | 38.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb819…f7c2backed Yes | 45c | 37.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 52c | 37.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed No | 55c | 36.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 34.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 37c | 32.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 48c | 30.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 68c | 29.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…6df4backed Yes | 50c | 26.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 44c | 25.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 67c | 22.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x963b…273dbacked No | 80c | 22.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 76cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 20.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.