Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x315ddcdc452386cef90f23333c80661c6061e1b9bd72e8db0990b3494206140c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,033 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45cc…b0c6backed Yes | 2c | 16,719$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.33 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes | 2c | 16,470$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.88 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 6,112$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 1,311$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 10c | 932.74$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.78 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 398.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 59c | 300$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 297.78$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.58 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 45c | 250.26$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.62 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…61babacked Yes | 34c | 231.66$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 5c | 225.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x990f…d200backed Yes | 45c | 220.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3f…5e3abacked No | 47c | 211.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 45c | 209.12$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.89 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 29c | 192.51$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.73 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 54c | 185.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 184.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d65…0d96backed No | 60c | 181$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 33c | 162.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 157.15$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…1fb7backed Yes | 29c | 154.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 18c | 131.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x263b…853dbacked Yes | 40c | 126.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 118.66$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022f…49cfbacked No | 68c | 109.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef36…a047backed Yes | 79c | 103.84$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 91.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 52c | 90.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 84.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Yes | 64c | 78.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed No | 20c | 77.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 75.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdccd…2d4bbacked Yes | 35c | 74.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 25c | 73.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 53c | 72.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 72c | 65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…143bbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 31c | 56.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 29c | 55.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…d91bbacked Yes | 44c | 53.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 64c | 48.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 21c | 47.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 46.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 26c | 38.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…6df4backed No | 54c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67b9…580fbacked No | 79c | 16.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.