Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x309eabe1dc3416e95531352e7760f96abf87d0dfae6a3da04d82329d9ebd2af9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,201 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 9c | 3,353$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.17 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 8c | 2,020$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.49 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Yes | 8c | 1,958$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…1a46backed Yes | 2c | 1,732$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…e2dbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,595$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 5c | 1,443$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 11c | 1,306$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.64 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 5c | 1,227$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 6c | 907.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 720.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…c213backed Yes | 3c | 583$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +4.5wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +367%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 6c | 499.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e02abacked Yes | 4c | 469.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d1…4e43backed Yes | 7c | 428.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb2…c37cbacked Yes | 9c | 427.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 422$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 4c | 376.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 360.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed Yes | 7c | 360$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 355.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 7c | 313.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 7c | 310.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…3d62backed Yes | 5c | 282.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 6c | 275.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…b86fbacked Yes | 11c | 262.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 9c | 223.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 7c | 221$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 16c | 218.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…2317backed Yes | 16c | 209.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…10ebbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…e991backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…6b12backed Yes | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…589ebacked Yes | 14c | 146.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e2a0backed Yes | 13c | 106$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5265…0d3bbacked Yes | 20c | 102.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e4…8171backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 6°C or below on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 9°C on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.