Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81d19c8021af6f0944a45c8a653ff2e2b15d3f60d827c52e584f6a783ed13331
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,728 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes | 2c | 12,200$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.47 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb2…c37cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 1c | 4,088$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…b468backed Yes | 1c | 2,667$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,958$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…1435backed Yes | 70c | 1,612$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…3ef0backed Yes | 35c | 1,420$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 5c | 1,200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 10c | 999.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a0a4backed Yes | 46c | 693.96$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.54 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 39c | 585.15$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.21 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 73c | 556.96$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.34 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec5d…11d5backed No | 66c | 518.1$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.54 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 59c | 509.86$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.64 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 63c | 500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9a…b259backed Yes | 59c | 485.53$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 5c | 445.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 48c | 384.07$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.99 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbc…0083backed No | 78c | 362.3$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 346.26$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 8c | 343$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 323.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 42c | 312.39$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.64 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 79c | 286.21$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 43c | 266$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.55 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 43c | 263.15$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.21 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1162…15f3backed No | 64c | 248.98$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 51c | 248.87$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.6 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 56c | 221$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.37 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 35c | 220.86$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 208.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb30d…d6c4backed Yes | 56c | 207.82$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 39c | 202.86$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.85 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed No | 77c | 201.05$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 38c | 200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…85ddbacked Yes | 51c | 197.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 50c | 193.4$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.37 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 69c | 191.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.47 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b66…6270backed No | 55c | 190.3$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 180.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 11c | 180.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 43c | 177.84$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.37 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…b101backed Yes | 18c | 175.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x022f…e73abacked No | 78c | 175.17$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +86%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 164$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…9e26backed Yes | 53c | 160$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…63d2backed Yes | 36c | 151.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 20c | 147.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 41c | 145$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 141.48$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a9…2c34backed Yes | 42c | 135$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 41c | 119.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 33c | 116.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.92 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af0…f117backed Yes | 42c | 113.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a71…78c9backed Yes | 63c | 111.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b47…c0dabacked Yes | 36c | 110$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3912…5fc7backed Yes | 37c | 107.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94c4…e984backed Yes | 62c | 103.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 64c | 102$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed Yes | 34c | 101.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 60c | 100.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 100.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…10ebbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab2…676ebacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2efa…cb31backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 47c | 95.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 45c | 91.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 66c | 91.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 34c | 89.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 32c | 86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 84.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 37c | 82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 23c | 76.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…de4cbacked Yes | 50c | 74.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…96e3backed No | 76c | 72.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 35c | 71.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…c006backed Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…1a9ebacked Yes | 54c | 68.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 21c | 68.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a0…4e39backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6c…6cfebacked Yes | 44c | 63.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 41c | 63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 79c | 57.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f9…f3e8backed Yes | 35c | 56.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…1b72backed No | 80c | 56.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 6°C or below on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 9°C on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.