Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0da0cc7d73e1b26c36f60b75b606a30b4d453b0e505bf938b3fbb0eed5a3f223
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,841 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34ec…b7cfbacked No | 0c | 29,200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…0a1bbacked No | 0c | 10,650$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 7c | 4,865$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.65 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…04f5backed No | 1c | 1,775$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 1c | 1,502$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,099$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 12c | 1,073$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.35 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 71c | 959$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.44 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 21c | 567.64$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.3 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 56c | 531.96$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.64 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 25c | 499.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.99 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 46c | 471.11$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.13 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 457.19$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 29c | 428.64$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.83 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 10c | 387.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 334.79$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.53 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked No | 63c | 329.1$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.02 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 312.5$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 307.05$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 49c | 302$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.64 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 51c | 298.23$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.47 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 71c | 297.69$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.68 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 6c | 290.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf87…1949backed Yes | 68c | 273.52$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.23 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 69c | 270.55$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.55 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 77c | 261.58$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 17c | 249.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 224.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 26c | 221$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.65 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 20c | 219.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 55c | 216.86$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.79 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…e2dbbacked Yes | 44c | 211.48$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…85ddbacked Yes | 38c | 210$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…2317backed Yes | 29c | 208$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.68 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…b1bfbacked Yes | 24c | 207.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 78c | 203.76$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x686c…c25fbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 29c | 200$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 72c | 199.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.38 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 196.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.98 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 177.69$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.38 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 43c | 169.34$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.34 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…29bfbacked Yes | 33c | 152.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.91 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 34c | 147.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.47 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 27c | 147.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.71 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 39c | 144.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.58 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 41c | 141.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.92 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…9037backed No | 71c | 141.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 54c | 141.18$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.18 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 136.36$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 125$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 45c | 119.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.16 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 25c | 113.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.08 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 80c | 112.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d4…0c26backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…1a46backed No | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…d91bbacked Yes | 80c | 103.52$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 25c | 100.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a9…2c34backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.71 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…10ebbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…b101backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb60…1938backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2efa…cb31backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85eb…8f73backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 19c | 99.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.86 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x409e…fed6backed No | 31c | 97.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db9…8b0fbacked Yes | 52c | 92.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 23c | 92.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.65 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…c8bdbacked Yes | 24c | 83.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…237cbacked No | 71c | 78.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed No | 72c | 75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502c…7c03backed Yes | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x657e…9fa5backed Yes | 27c | 73.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes | 28c | 70.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 72c | 66.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…c153backed Yes | 28c | 65.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb2…21cbbacked Yes | 61c | 62.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc681…109cbacked No | 78c | 60.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes | 43c | 58.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed Yes | 37c | 58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…589ebacked Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…c246backed Yes | 23c | 53.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc35f…f0e6backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30f…d81cbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4808…f10fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54e…9598backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…8fabbacked Yes | 36c | 42.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…4e57backed No | 27c | 41.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…ff6abacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 6°C or below on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 9°C on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.