TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

76ers vs. Raptors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
76ersof 76ers, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,665,609
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,841,456

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,665,609 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,036 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd9b…414dbacked Raptors43c220,558$94,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94,567.551844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x060e…2384backed Raptors43c174,985$75,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,243.658037.5%30 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Raptors43c66,802$28,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,421.6887144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed 76ers57c50,000$28,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,499.9924650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed 76ers57c38,750$22,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,662.481,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed 76ers57c37,242$21,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,048.194,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked 76ers57c34,752$19,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,937.889,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked 76ers58c30,000$17,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,6001,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ad7…b8ebbacked 76ers57c27,175$15,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,685.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ce…2bc5backed Raptors43c26,494$11,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,393333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked 76ers57c25,728$14,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,962.362,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed 76ers57c24,750$14,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,642.571,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed 76ers57c24,514$13,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,632.3936741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked 76ers57c24,444$13,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,455.922,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked 76ers73c23,358$17,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,273.825,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked Raptors13c22,925$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0003411.8%4 W · 30 L-8.5wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-62%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed 76ers57c22,298$12,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,588.2540350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed 76ers58c19,451$11,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,266.292,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked 76ers57c19,429$11,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,293.043,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed 76ers57c19,357$11,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,317.782,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Raptors29c19,177$5,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,592.471,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed 76ers80c18,687$14,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,744.251,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Raptors1c18,662$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.6256646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked 76ers58c16,180$9,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,846.7519560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed 76ers57c16,135$9,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,902.7392753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56e2…4b88backed Raptors42c16,034$6,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,734.155253.8%28 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked 76ers57c15,000$8,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,449.8519150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Raptors1c13,864$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.6364517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed 76ers66c12,105$7,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,156.2627865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed 76ers57c11,925$6,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,127.652460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x03a9…37babacked 76ers58c11,202$6,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,704.6910547.6%50 W · 55 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f76…6323backed Raptors2c10,938$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.7610119.8%20 W · 81 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-42.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf35f…64c5backed 76ers58c10,534$6,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,424.354862.5%30 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Raptors43c10,528$4,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,526.9974748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Raptors0c10,480$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.128820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed 76ers57c10,061$5,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,326.2347751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ac…2d1fbacked 76ers57c10,000$5,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,274.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Raptors43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,30021450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Raptors43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,30015841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed 76ers58c10,000$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,20017861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4742…f315backed Raptors43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe021…e299backed Raptors43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,30010035%35 W · 65 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Raptors1c10,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.8627917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19be…2541backed 76ers57c10,000$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,299.989758.8%57 W · 40 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae24…07c2backed Raptors5c10,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002524%6 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Raptors43c10,000$4,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,249.9635235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Raptors1c9,856$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5648347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Raptors1c9,777$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.771,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Raptors5c9,723$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.672,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Raptors43c9,302$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00016251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff60…8c1dbacked 76ers57c8,598$4,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,697.28988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.3wins+0.37per pick52cpaid+80.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x625f…9ff6backed Raptors6c8,333$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005621.4%12 W · 44 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+44.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcad4…ad8ebacked Raptors43c8,000$3,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4401346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0364…f19bbacked 76ers57c8,000$4,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4401353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked 76ers57c7,824$4,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,335.0730947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed 76ers57c7,740$4,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,328.1817554.9%96 W · 79 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked 76ers58c7,294$4,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,097.011,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed 76ers57c6,670$3,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,868.150653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked 76ers74c6,617$4,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,724.0810255.9%57 W · 45 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Raptors44c6,150$2,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,695.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0837…f8b2backed Raptors0c6,010$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Raptors43c6,000$2,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,58032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed 76ers57c5,876$3,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,526.6714663.7%93 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Raptors3c5,676$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.881529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed 76ers57c5,669$3,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,418.362,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Raptors13c5,611$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.8934227.2%93 W · 249 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x282d…f0c8backed 76ers57c5,569$3,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,394.67966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked 76ers57c5,564$3,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,366.2772450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed 76ers58c5,452$3,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,311.271,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed 76ers57c5,200$2,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2365050%25 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1307…d640backed 76ers57c5,100$2,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2031752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbf6…1395backed Raptors7c5,100$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.995054%27 W · 23 L+8.4wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+30.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Raptors43c5,004$2,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,151.7223245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked 76ers57c5,000$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1502138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Raptors0c5,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Raptors42c5,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.9935450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x989a…afbcbacked Raptors3c4,869$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.2611540.9%47 W · 68 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9785…36d8backed 76ers57c4,800$2,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0645100%5 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c14…7bc1backed 76ers59c4,560$2,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,869.411142.3%47 W · 64 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed 76ers57c4,527$2,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,956.911,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Raptors43c4,386$1,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,886.1234654%187 W · 159 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfc1…d629backed Raptors43c4,300$1,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,848.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81b1…27a6backed 76ers57c4,300$2,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,848.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked 76ers58c4,246$2,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.6125554.1%138 W · 117 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Raptors42c4,172$1,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,752.4437539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed 76ers58c4,160$2,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,747.228643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0500…17cdbacked Raptors43c4,110$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.24837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed 76ers58c4,000$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,68076850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Raptors5c4,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Raptors42c3,996$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,684.4986641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16cf…1d42backed Raptors43c3,900$1,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,676.97757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+58%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc99…ce7ebacked 76ers58c3,899$2,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,626.956248.4%30 W · 32 L+6.7wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+19.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9aeb…5a2dbacked Raptors44c3,795$1,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,651.273432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid+35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad8…9bc1backed Raptors4c3,763$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.338936%32 W · 57 L-7.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked 76ers57c3,720$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.664651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Raptors2c3,619$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.23,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed 76ers78c3,525$2,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.1185344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Raptors43c3,488$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50048938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked 76ers57c3,449$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,467.9138148.6%185 W · 196 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x877b…7d82backed 76ers57c3,400$1,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,461.99875%6 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+85.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.