TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Patriots vs. Ravens

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Patriotsof Patriots, Ravens
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,711,562
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,172,593

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,711,562 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,747 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Ravens65c2,048,267$1,330,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330,037.117041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a55…f9bebacked Patriots35c992,407$347,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645,064.731428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-39.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbda3…cab2backed Patriots36c700,000$250,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449,999.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+54.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Ravens64c643,913$411,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411,613.4830043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Patriots36c575,258$204,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370,400.894250%21 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d9…5ee1backed Ravens64c562,348$359,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359,902.532050%10 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Patriots36c398,572$142,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256,086.0710333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ca8…bf49backed Patriots35c320,528$112,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208,343.521936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Ravens64c315,570$201,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,302.2427454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Patriots35c299,160$105,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193,919.6747738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Ravens65c281,155$182,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182,751.7711145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Patriots41c179,176$73,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105,840.4847348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Patriots40c150,572$59,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90,611.6853348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Patriots35c148,377$52,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,017.317255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Ravens63c140,384$88,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,441.9611168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Patriots36c136,828$49,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,66486547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Patriots35c128,609$45,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83,595.5819553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Ravens52c124,533$64,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,733.4373651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2643…39aebacked Patriots37c118,760$43,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,818.82065%13 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+44.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Ravens65c117,136$75,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,712.4319152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2838…fdd3backed Patriots38c108,886$40,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,886.522544%11 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Patriots42c107,372$45,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,774.3616955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Ravens68c104,409$70,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,869.5475852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Patriots37c95,664$35,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,268.169359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Ravens63c77,777$49,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,999.6817454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Ravens64c67,823$43,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,073.7211544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Patriots39c65,964$25,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,206.7231543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Patriots41c64,297$26,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,895.5811643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…357dbacked Patriots55c62,922$34,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,292.071662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Ravens63c60,000$37,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,8005453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Ravens63c60,000$37,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,799.824957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Ravens65c58,612$38,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,094.867951.9%41 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ec…3fb9backed Ravens57c52,100$29,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,722.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Patriots38c50,731$19,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,435.337248.6%35 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Patriots35c50,706$17,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,888.0730743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Patriots34c45,597$15,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,094.0212144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Patriots67c45,363$30,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,767.131163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Ravens65c42,762$27,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,7951968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+39%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Patriots36c42,000$15,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,739.9814342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Ravens63c41,516$26,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,212.6317647.7%84 W · 92 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Patriots36c40,453$14,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,785.1523244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Ravens64c40,000$25,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,60016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcc9…26fbbacked Patriots46c40,000$18,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,800742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Patriots55c35,768$19,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,089.5220755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2f…3794backed Patriots36c30,194$11,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,180.848128.4%23 W · 58 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Patriots38c29,890$11,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,601.7418650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe965…6559backed Patriots59c28,758$17,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,713.446149.2%30 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Ravens66c28,072$18,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,595.1920026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Patriots36c27,778$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,777.7813142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Ravens56c27,000$15,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,119.973548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Ravens59c26,400$15,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,575.953863.2%24 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Patriots37c26,366$9,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,610.7583147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f6…48f3backed Patriots37c26,084$9,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,432.784146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Ravens64c25,776$16,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,496.6413449.3%66 W · 68 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Patriots55c21,694$11,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,765.9164747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Ravens27c20,310$5,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,457.8850242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Ravens61c20,286$12,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,406.6814349%70 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Patriots36c20,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,8005431.5%17 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Ravens58c19,546$11,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,336.641741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-29.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Patriots28c18,173$5,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,169.9312748%61 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Ravens65c17,827$11,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,50014252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Ravens59c16,197$9,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,496.2913560%81 W · 54 L+14.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Ravens60c15,513$9,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,307.895550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5896backed Patriots38c15,018$5,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,282.381844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb44d…ba3abacked Patriots35c14,734$5,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,594.03666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Ravens56c14,398$8,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,104.6227644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Patriots36c14,344$5,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,124.3512744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x87b6…4ababacked Patriots36c14,000$5,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,9604452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Patriots43c14,000$6,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,979.992941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Ravens63c12,800$8,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,102.0739447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36c8…53a9backed Patriots50c12,340$6,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,203.061833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9dd…3cc5backed Patriots28c12,267$3,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,792.221931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+28.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f9…2aa8backed Patriots37c12,185$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,684.6829059.7%173 W · 117 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa25…05e8backed Patriots41c12,064$5,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,061.842948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0b1…faebbacked Patriots43c11,910$5,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,758.167737.7%29 W · 48 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2232…f6fabacked Ravens66c10,481$6,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,952.272470.8%17 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d9…ca67backed Patriots38c10,000$3,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,2263548.6%17 W · 18 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+10.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Patriots27c10,000$2,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,3307558.7%44 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Ravens22c9,643$2,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,116.419235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Patriots59c9,391$5,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,803.258164.2%52 W · 29 L+12.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+137.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Ravens64c9,101$5,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,824.641421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.27per pick48cpaid-64.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Patriots51c8,500$4,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,192.078351.8%43 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Patriots44c8,392$3,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,730.2127348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cec…1a24backed Patriots36c8,333$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,333.33683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.36per pick48cpaid+73%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Ravens67c8,297$5,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5546965.2%45 W · 24 L+9.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd4a3…0848backed Patriots35c8,203$2,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,331.864252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Patriots32c8,000$2,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4206645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Ravens74c7,764$5,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,782.715939%23 W · 36 L-9.4wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-34.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Ravens63c7,751$4,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8841414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-64.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb84a…055dbacked Ravens58c7,633$4,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,427.181741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb582…85fbbacked Patriots39c7,607$2,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,640.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb3…a08dbacked Ravens60c7,562$4,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,536.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…d804backed Ravens63c7,319$4,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,626.41560%9 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…6989backed Patriots41c7,103$2,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,190.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Patriots40c7,066$2,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,259.0121254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Patriots44c7,000$3,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,92011252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Patriots39c7,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,25012944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Patriots38c7,000$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3405459.3%32 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Patriots36c7,000$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,48051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Patriots50c6,910$3,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,424.869359.1%55 W · 38 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.