NFL · resolved market
Patriots vs. Ravens: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x501563a6d53c76907596a05c48fb1e70b66dd8246fb3ad79be542f96caef3cfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 9,424$4,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,556.68 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 53c | 7,820$4,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,707.44 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 6,705$3,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,202.63 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Under | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Over | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 3,425$1,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,712.5 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 50c | 2,023$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.73 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…0fc6backed Under | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…4c6dbacked Over | 53c | 1,820$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.45 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 1,819$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.5 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 48c | 1,816$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.68 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Over | 53c | 1,600$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 50c | 1,354$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.3 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 49c | 1,338$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.34 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 54c | 1,256$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.43 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 53c | 1,064$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.15 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Over | 52c | 1,058$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.69 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 767.12$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.12 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0a…69d3backed Over | 52c | 620$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 30c | 486$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.89 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 50c | 443.26$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.63 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Under | 47c | 398.61$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.35 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 51c | 311$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.39 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Under | 49c | 305.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 51c | 295$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.55 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 47c | 249.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Over | 52c | 201.92$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.92 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 51c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…5903backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 45c | 176.55$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 163 | 60.1%98 W · 65 L | +16.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 48c | 152$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 54c | 147.89$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Over | 51c | 136$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 37c | 130$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 58c | 123.24$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 50c | 122.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Over | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Under | 45c | 107.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x190b…2f3abacked Under | 57c | 105$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…add9backed Under | 51c | 102.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Over | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ac…4a3cbacked Under | 49c | 88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Under | 62c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 47c | 64.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 38c | 62.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Under | 49c | 61.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +15.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Over | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +15.3wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Under | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 98 | 62.2%61 W · 37 L | +11.8wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 58.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 55c | 56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa221…5b1fbacked Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 52c | 46.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Over | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62eb…45b7backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x562c…e035backed Over | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 52c | 23.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Patriots vs. Ravens: O/U 47.5this page
- 1H Spread: Ravens (-1.5)Patriots won
- Patriots vs. RavensPatriots won
- Patriots vs. Ravens: O/U 48.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Ravens: O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: Ravens (-2.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Ravens (-3.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.