NFL · resolved market
Patriots vs. Ravens: O/U 49.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb66914ead2a971b544e27dbac6d7242fd479797f3da19ade8288424d4acd02e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $486,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $488,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $486,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7435…a620backed Under | 57c | 450,000$256,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256,500 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 43c | 430,606$185,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245,445.25 | 169 | 55%93 W · 76 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 17,072$7,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,537.38 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 43c | 8,000$3,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,560 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 52c | 6,697$3,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,466.46 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 57c | 5,523$3,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,148.26 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 47c | 4,187$1,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,219.1 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Under | 52c | 1,752$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafdc…c2a2backed Over | 47c | 1,417$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.02 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Over | 48c | 1,160$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.42 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 1,088$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.64 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Over | 47c | 412.77$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.77 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -7.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -34%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 56c | 405.45$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.05 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 44c | 361.65$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.52 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 44c | 324$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.44 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Under | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…b176backed Under | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 56c | 240$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +10.7wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Over | 44c | 180$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Over | 44c | 180$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +15.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Over | 44c | 180$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 105 | 65.7%69 W · 36 L | +16.6wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…aa68backed Over | 44c | 164.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked Over | 45c | 112.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Under | 56c | 89.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 47c | 83.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…8c00backed Over | 49c | 77.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dd…1417backed Under | 55c | 74.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +15.3wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Under | 52c | 59.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…a6c9backed Over | 47c | 53.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…daabbacked Over | 48c | 46.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 43c | 41.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7f…0b18backed Over | 49c | 38.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 50c | 38.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 40c | 33.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 98 | 62.2%61 W · 37 L | +11.8wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x512f…6a7ebacked Over | 49c | 20.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Under | 54c | 18.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Patriots vs. Ravens: O/U 49.5this page
- 1H Spread: Ravens (-1.5)Patriots won
- Patriots vs. RavensPatriots won
- Patriots vs. Ravens: O/U 47.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Ravens: O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: Ravens (-2.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Ravens (-3.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.