Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon reach $216 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22668acb3fae874d2a0fb3328d5e29b27bf978e3c9b49317066984401509f5bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 59c | 11,906$7,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,857.58 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…69babacked No | 45c | 10,703$4,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,844.47 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 17c | 4,400$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 26c | 2,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba9c…d98dbacked No | 15c | 1,420$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5061…1b03backed No | 29c | 1,200$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 24c | 1,090$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.65 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x223a…7664backed No | 17c | 1,058$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…7108backed No | 18c | 782.7$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 643$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed No | 16c | 520.84$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2abf…545abacked No | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked No | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 51c | 372$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.82 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…f85fbacked No | 23c | 311.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked No | 13c | 199.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 181.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 17c | 135$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 46c | 130$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 126$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51f…b4cdbacked No | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe0…c27cbacked No | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon reach $216 in March?this page
- Will Amazon dip to $132 in March?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $152 in March?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $168 in March?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $180 in March?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $192 in March?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $200 in March?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $224 in March?No won
- Will Amazon reach $232 in March?No won
- Will Amazon reach $244 in March?No won
- Will Amazon reach $260 in March?No won
- Will Amazon reach $296 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.