Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon dip to $192 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcf505975fd6527b9eed1129404734ad51fff0951bba65ff31c2694dfd0f5a32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 22c | 3,292$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.96 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 77c | 1,323$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.89 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 46c | 615$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.85 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 2c | 598$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 75c | 576$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.88 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 8c | 537$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 51c | 440$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.6 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 56c | 306.64$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.92 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce53…834bbacked Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b0…0664backed No | 80c | 250.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x174e…2a52backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 26c | 198.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 159.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…f8dfbacked Yes | 27c | 155$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 113.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe63c…9fe9backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…0667backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 77c | 63.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…bcc2backed No | 79c | 31.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…3ed5backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 76c | 19.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon dip to $192 in March?this page
- Will Amazon dip to $132 in March?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $152 in March?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $168 in March?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $180 in March?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $200 in March?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $216 in March?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $224 in March?No won
- Will Amazon reach $232 in March?No won
- Will Amazon reach $244 in March?No won
- Will Amazon reach $260 in March?No won
- Will Amazon reach $296 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.