TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Bulls

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, Bulls
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,530,069
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,546,206

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,530,069 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,473 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd9b…414dbacked Bulls31c74,100$22,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,97151844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Bulls38c56,184$21,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,496.8577348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Heat69c47,000$32,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,570.131445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat68c45,736$31,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,712.899,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aa3…64e9backed Heat69c37,252$25,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,548.066358.7%37 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Bulls31c34,977$10,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,842.8620551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Bulls31c32,000$9,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,959.9819048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Heat69c29,980$20,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,293.7815841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Heat69c26,435$18,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,194.81,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Bulls31c24,605$7,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,574.1648845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Bulls30c23,688$7,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,106.51,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Bulls32c21,600$6,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,91221450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed Heat69c21,600$14,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,69617861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Heat62c20,069$12,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,566.21,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Heat69c20,000$13,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,199.9919150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Bulls33c19,496$6,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,397.9840133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Heat69c19,200$13,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,9521,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Heat69c18,783$12,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,822.6128649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Heat70c15,062$10,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,518.613154.8%17 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6d0…9391backed Heat68c15,020$10,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,843.0827247.1%128 W · 144 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Bulls31c15,005$4,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,651.5523245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Heat67c14,954$10,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,909.832,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed Bulls31c14,847$4,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,602.659263%58 W · 34 L+9.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdec1…28bdbacked Bulls31c14,398$4,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,500.793636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12fd…90c0backed Bulls31c14,201$4,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,402.2928439.8%113 W · 171 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bulls31c13,705$4,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,274.722,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x87fa…fc74backed Heat70c13,633$9,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,118.72580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf35f…64c5backed Heat69c12,800$8,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9684862.5%30 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Bulls31c12,000$3,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,719.9918045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccdb…ffa9backed Heat67c11,867$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,866.643884.2%32 W · 6 L+10.8wins+0.29per pick56cpaid+59.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Heat69c11,664$8,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,661.021,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Bulls31c10,430$3,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,233.325546.7%119 W · 136 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat69c9,864$6,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,085.83,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Heat67c9,059$6,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,031.751,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4331…39e5backed Bulls31c8,600$2,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,665.98850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Bulls31c8,065$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc946…1825backed Heat68c8,000$5,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,539.075259.6%31 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8b…77d4backed Heat68c7,900$5,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,527.9711244.6%50 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c42…da3cbacked Bulls31c7,899$2,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,448.6714055.7%78 W · 62 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bulls31c7,849$2,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,467.242,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a09…db1cbacked Heat70c7,143$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,142.863452.9%18 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-16.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf93c…ae06backed Heat69c7,000$4,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,170977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick47cpaid+74.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Heat69c6,957$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,156.5213063.8%83 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Heat70c6,829$4,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,048.571,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Bulls32c6,600$2,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,081.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Heat68c6,531$4,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,093.9346940.3%189 W · 280 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07c…11a0backed Bulls31c6,290$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,95018140.3%73 W · 108 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x487f…e5d7backed Bulls32c6,250$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-42.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x088e…bc56backed Heat66c6,052$3,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,055.225253.8%28 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Bulls31c6,000$1,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,834.9747028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Heat68c5,700$3,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,823.991,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Heat68c5,648$3,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,796.744,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Bulls33c5,533$1,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,808.5659646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc78e…6a27backed Heat70c5,239$3,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.831855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb876…a86bbacked Bulls32c5,200$1,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,663.3214344.8%64 W · 79 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Heat68c5,145$3,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,646.551,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed Heat69c5,042$3,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,573.3121538.1%82 W · 133 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Bulls31c5,000$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,55021951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Heat69c4,930$3,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,547.7126637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb48f…d015backed Heat70c4,888$3,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.5512454.8%68 W · 56 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Bulls31c4,839$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50024831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x177f…956cbacked Heat69c4,789$3,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,484.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Heat69c4,727$3,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.962,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Heat68c4,640$3,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,462.2572450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat66c4,550$3,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,530.858,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Heat68c4,500$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44012147.9%58 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…01b0backed Heat68c4,400$2,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.992462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4759…8538backed Heat61c4,275$2,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,667.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Bulls30c4,222$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.5774748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c0…661ebacked Bulls39c4,148$1,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,617.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Heat69c4,046$2,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.3538148.6%185 W · 196 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6efe…c249backed Bulls31c4,000$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-27.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa408…d831backed Bulls35c3,976$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,388.0114647.9%70 W · 76 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcbc…71c1backed Heat69c3,926$2,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,217.093050%15 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-7.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x27c2…bd84backed Heat70c3,866$2,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.684100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+68.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Bulls32c3,800$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,21638434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed Bulls34c3,676$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25011747%55 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa051…54ebbacked Bulls31c3,548$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10015435.7%55 W · 99 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Heat65c3,510$2,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.6139349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1c4…48d7backed Heat69c3,500$2,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0854165.9%27 W · 14 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaca8…c951backed Bulls31c3,500$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0853026.7%8 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b49…d0dfbacked Bulls32c3,426$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.236650%33 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Bulls35c3,423$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.9628537.9%108 W · 177 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcad4…ad8ebacked Heat69c3,400$2,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0541346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6726…46febacked Heat69c3,300$2,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-40.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Bulls31c3,200$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99249142.6%209 W · 282 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Heat68c3,132$2,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.261464.3%9 W · 5 L+4.1wins+0.29per pick35cpaid+103.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Bulls32c3,125$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00046632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Heat68c3,103$2,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.042,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Bulls30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90031538.1%120 W · 195 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b77…f234backed Bulls31c3,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9301457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+54.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x37a3…fe17backed Heat69c3,000$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9302250%11 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42f7…5b3ebacked Bulls34c3,000$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0109038.9%35 W · 55 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ebf…82d5backed Bulls31c3,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.983551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a5a…e490backed Bulls30c2,993$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.93616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed Heat62c2,940$1,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.7622051.8%114 W · 106 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Heat68c2,805$1,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.9824846.8%116 W · 132 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2bd…b539backed Bulls32c2,620$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.41030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-45.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc127…66e9backed Bulls31c2,576$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.4811657.8%67 W · 49 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x494e…c549backed Heat70c2,576$1,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.7311836.4%43 W · 75 L-12.3wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.