NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb8a81083e6543d99ab5b98e31c197241a92cd9697f7c3c1e6fbf9a8a12c2f36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddd9…fe8dbacked Under | 52c | 15,500$8,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,440 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1869…30c8backed Over | 48c | 15,500$7,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,440 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.15 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 47c | 2,113$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.17 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 53c | 2,032$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.97 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Under | 53c | 1,874$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.03 | 245 | 49%120 W · 125 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Under | 52c | 1,475$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 1,093$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.63 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 51c | 695$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.55 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 56c | 692$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.15 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 51c | 519.47$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.12 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 49c | 490$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.1 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 420.31$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.34 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 41c | 420.31$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.33 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 52c | 327.48$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.19 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Over | 50c | 300.44$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 48c | 263$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.24 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdb…0b12backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Under | 74c | 171.04$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Under | 52c | 95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 50c | 84.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 36c | 68.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 50c | 68.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Over | 52c | 47.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 151 | 61.6%93 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8398…749abacked Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 48c | 38.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4dd7backed Over | 60c | 30.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 53c | 29.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 43c | 29.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Over | 48c | 24.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…5729backed Under | 54c | 20.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5this page
- Heat vs. BullsHeat won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.