NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa32432df3f2bbee3b01cd4411a3c90a146afac5632bcc49d3e3a2ac944e71a53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 53c | 6,449$3,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,001.06 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Over | 48c | 4,532$2,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,172 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 49c | 3,864$1,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,970.74 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 3,756$1,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,817.51 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 47c | 2,351$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.35 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 51c | 1,960$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.6 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 1,898$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.45 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a0…42a3backed Under | 56c | 1,550$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…6313backed Over | 44c | 1,550$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 51c | 1,000$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.9 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb75…2cdfbacked Under | 51c | 843.14$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.14 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Over | 16c | 757.95$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.46 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Under | 21c | 646.76$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.68 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 35cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1e…bb68backed Under | 52c | 578.27$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.27 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Under | 47c | 491.06$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.26 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | -12.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55ac…9955backed Over | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 47c | 160.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 55c | 154$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236d…5e45backed Over | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Over | 14c | 132.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 85 | 11.8%10 W · 75 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 158 | 7%11 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Over | 46c | 97.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 55c | 76.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Over | 48c | 72.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 139 | 45.3%63 W · 76 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 42c | 59.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 54c | 59.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b8…898abacked Under | 53c | 59.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 48c | 56.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Over | 45c | 49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…73c9backed Over | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 42c | 41.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 56c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 58c | 40.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Under | 56c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 41c | 30.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa68d…e03bbacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…fadcbacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…8383backed Over | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 45c | 24.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed Over | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eee…5ac4backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5this page
- Heat vs. BullsHeat won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.