TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bullsof Heat, Bulls
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$758,591
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$838,190

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $758,591 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Bulls49c419,230$205,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213,807.8287451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Heat51c310,901$158,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158,558.794452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Heat15c100,000$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,0005848.3%28 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Heat51c40,000$20,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,40051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Heat51c20,000$10,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,20059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Heat48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,60029748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc63…ded0backed Heat48c19,808$9,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,507.8940%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Heat51c10,704$5,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,4592,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Heat51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Heat53c9,000$4,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,769.991,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Heat52c8,596$4,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,47033447.9%160 W · 174 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Heat48c6,219$2,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,984.952460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Heat51c5,500$2,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8054,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Heat52c5,357$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80038750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Bulls51c4,935$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,434.8476746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Heat46c4,850$2,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,23135747.1%168 W · 189 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Heat52c4,297$2,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,231.4282442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Heat48c4,184$2,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,004.12,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x454f…04e7backed Heat52c4,027$2,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,094.162755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a81…aa82backed Bulls48c4,027$1,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,094.041866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Heat52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08017250%86 W · 86 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf04f…ce8cbacked Heat46c2,834$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Heat50c2,577$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.322,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a80…141fbacked Heat46c1,952$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.972321.7%5 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-57.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls47c1,763$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.868,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Heat51c1,621$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.112,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Heat34c1,621$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.283,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat51c1,596$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.299,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked Heat33c1,532$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.648742.5%37 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Bulls52c1,497$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.8925847.3%122 W · 136 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Heat51c1,142$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.421,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe00f…c254backed Heat53c1,132$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60019147.1%90 W · 101 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…0a77backed Heat53c1,066$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56515756.7%89 W · 68 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Heat52c1,042$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54250754.2%275 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda16…ac2bbacked Bulls53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47011939.5%47 W · 72 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Heat51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Bulls48c949.98$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.9949938.9%194 W · 305 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls47c920$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.66,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Heat52c836.78$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.6763745.8%292 W · 345 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Heat48c806.13$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.9483039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Bulls53c740.52$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.4128537.9%108 W · 177 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1aa…16cfbacked Heat48c521.67$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25015161.6%93 W · 58 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed Heat53c488.1$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.826546.2%30 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Bulls47c470.73$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.491,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bbe…03c5backed Heat19c455.91$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.325240.4%21 W · 31 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Heat51c414.16$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.082,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bulls47c403$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.822,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Heat46c399.54$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.791,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb65a…07f7backed Heat46c370.15$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Heat51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15322138%84 W · 137 L-11.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x437b…0ba4backed Heat53c279.96$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.3816547.3%78 W · 87 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Heat52c250$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13022953.7%123 W · 106 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed Heat46c218.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Heat48c214$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.721,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd38b…e07abacked Heat48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-51%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bulls55c205.24$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.361,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Heat51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030454.9%167 W · 137 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Heat49c196.07$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2659141.8%247 W · 344 L-26.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4909…8f39backed Heat46c181.73$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.62035%7 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-43%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Heat55c178.55$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9862546.9%293 W · 332 L+1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc82a…cc74backed Heat47c170.29$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8012155.4%67 W · 54 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Heat47c160.53$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0592750.6%469 W · 458 L-1.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ae4…a127backed Bulls47c148.94$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9411041.8%46 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3864…857fbacked Heat54c148.02$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9313957.6%80 W · 59 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5ae…85d1backed Heat46c141.3$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Bulls46c138.91$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.0166250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac98…1c06backed Heat51c137$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4786…ff95backed Heat46c130.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6022646.9%106 W · 120 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Heat54c129.63$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7023948.5%116 W · 123 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Heat52c121.36$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1153149.3%262 W · 269 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e21…c6f4backed Bulls53c120$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.413265.2%86 W · 46 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d4b…a250backed Bulls48c115.23$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.4634447.4%163 W · 181 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe33c…6006backed Heat53c113.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+37%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0343…5475backed Heat46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504753.2%25 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa90…d716backed Heat46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503243.8%14 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9756…a5d6backed Heat46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeabd…8115backed Heat46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+29.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Heat46c105.71$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.717358.9%43 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Bulls50c102.69$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5988845.7%406 W · 482 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10a3…ae13backed Heat49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502944.8%13 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5960…d692backed Heat45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5565…7693backed Heat44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-58.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3da1…c13bbacked Heat51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.442146.1%194 W · 227 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf11e…eb4fbacked Heat46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462454.2%13 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+61.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe3e4…7b2fbacked Heat48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf891…d3b6backed Bulls51c98.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.634951%25 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bea…82fcbacked Heat42c98.43$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.752245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65b6…2108backed Heat47c95.56$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4535844.1%158 W · 200 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b2…089abacked Heat53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509340.9%38 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Heat54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Bulls48c90$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.120353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x298e…107ebacked Heat46c88.98$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.63450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed Heat46c86.59$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1219242.7%82 W · 110 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee07…3573backed Heat46c86.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407159.2%42 W · 29 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9229…830bbacked Heat46c83.63$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.471566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Heat49c83.63$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.982,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9443…dd60backed Heat48c83.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.25per pick56cpaid-48.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked Heat45c65.82$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.55839.7%23 W · 35 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-30%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x985d…e14fbacked Bulls47c65.71$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.835156.9%29 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4216…eb13backed Heat48c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.82650%13 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.