TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0343…5475

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
114
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: NHL, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 57 out of 100; worst CS2 at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST4753.2%25 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
76ers vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$97.01
Timberwolves vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+222.6%+$69
Rockets vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Magic vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+75.4%+$38.7
Jazz vs. Raptors: O/U 233.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.4
Kings vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+53.8%+$21
Spread: Celtics (-13.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$14.31
Bulls vs. Heatbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+185.7%+$65
Timberwolves vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21.2
Pelicans vs. 76ersbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33
Hawks vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+100%+$10
Pistons vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$11.4
Nets vs. Jazzbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+132.6%+$48.15
Clippers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+117.4%+$11.88
Cavaliers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+138.1%+$14.5
Grizzlies vs. Pelicansbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$11.25
Raptors vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+81.8%+$9
Heat vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$33.4
Hornets vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$21.5
Spread: Heat (-6.5)backed Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Bucks vs. Wizardsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Spurs vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$11.4
Timberwolves vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$10.65
Hornets vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$11.5
Spread: Heat (-2.5)backed Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST1844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Northeastern Huskies vs. Monmouth Hawks: O/U 145.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+92.3%+$18.46
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Houston Cougars: O/U 143.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$40
North Texas Mean Green vs. Tulane Green Wavebacked Tulane Green Wave · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$33.6
Tarleton State Texans vs. Utah Tech Trailblazers: O/U 150.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+100%+$20
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Florida State Seminolesbacked Wake Forest Demon Deacons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+108.3%+$65
Wofford Terriers vs. Furman Paladinsbacked Wofford Terriers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+376.2%+$69.52
Charleston Cougars vs. Stony Brook Seawolvesbacked Stony Brook Seawolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+154.3%+$30.85
Spread: Saint Louis Billikens (-15.5)backed Richmond Spiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$46.64
Spread: Dartmouth Big Green (-1.5)backed Dartmouth Big Green · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Spread: North Alabama Lions (-2.5)backed North Alabama Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Cincinnati Bearcatsbacked Cincinnati Bearcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+132.6%+$106.05
Holy Cross Crusaders vs. Lafayette Leopardsbacked Holy Cross Crusaders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Bowling Green Falcons: O/U 141.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Spread: Hofstra Pride (-5.5)backed Hofstra Pride · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Virginia Tech Hokies: O/U 140.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs. Canisius Golden Griffins: O/U 134.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Spread: Boise State Broncos (-5.5)backed Boise State Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+92.3%+$56.31
Spread: Kent State Golden Flashes (-5.5)backed Toledo Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+88.7%+$21.18
All 18 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST1471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+44.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NHL — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackhawks vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+61.3%+$10.43
Capitals vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+156.4%+$31.28
Red Wings vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Rangers vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+58.7%+$9.4
Sabres vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$17.26
Senators vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+117.4%+$18.78
Rangers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+78.6%+$15.71
Devils vs. Flamesbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+88.7%+$14.1
Flyers vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$14.07
Wild vs. Maple Leafsbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+96.1%+$19.22
Sharks vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Senators vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+177.8%+$53.33
Ducks vs. Kingsbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+129%+$38.71
Sharks vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+63.9%+$53.6
All 14 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST70%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
CS2 — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$31.28
Patriots vs. Broncosbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+61.3%+$12.03
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$21.2
Rams vs. Bears: O/U 48.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 4 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+31.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$14.4
Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+104.1%+$20.82
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-01-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$26.48
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-01-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+58.7%+$18.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+96.1%+$14.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Open Sud de France: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Christopher O'Connellbacked O'Connell · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$44.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.