TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FUT Esportsof FURIA, FUT Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$648,556
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$700,171

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $648,556 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 429 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd9b…414dbacked FURIA75c171,966$128,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128,974.6711146.8%52 W · 59 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked FUT Esports25c128,578$32,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,433.1939249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed FUT Esports25c100,000$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,0007943%34 W · 45 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed FURIA75c80,000$60,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,00021051%107 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed FUT Esports47c25,389$11,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,412.957146.5%33 W · 38 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x699f…c3a9backed FURIA64c24,370$15,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,558.343652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked FURIA48c21,238$10,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,144.1213633.1%45 W · 91 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed FUT Esports35c15,018$5,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,786.267041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c6…1c37backed FUT Esports26c12,034$3,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,931.3911937.8%45 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-21.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked FURIA74c11,056$8,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,181.516160.7%37 W · 24 L+8.6wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+28.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed FURIA75c10,000$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,50012441.1%51 W · 73 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked FUT Esports52c9,319$4,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,464.883,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked FUT Esports30c8,489$2,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,918.911,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked FUT Esports61c8,123$4,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,144.3822354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed FURIA55c7,002$3,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,822.7324846.8%116 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed FURIA58c6,634$3,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,869.7723839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed FURIA54c6,457$3,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,512.4319455.2%107 W · 87 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked FUT Esports49c6,427$3,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,277.8983652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked FUT Esports30c6,409$1,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,498.7559839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed FUT Esports55c6,113$3,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,757.7112450%62 W · 62 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked FURIA77c6,091$4,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,664.7917148%82 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked FUT Esports24c6,005$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,563.6342440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed FURIA76c6,000$4,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,56071645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c1…7487backed FURIA41c5,762$2,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,348.3516732.9%55 W · 112 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed FUT Esports25c5,364$1,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,03075450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked FURIA48c5,041$2,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,437.332,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed FUT Esports48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,60064552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd87…ac38backed FURIA46c4,943$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25010047%47 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29de…02aabacked FURIA51c4,816$2,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,456.047736.4%28 W · 49 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbdc3…c0eabacked FURIA75c4,712$3,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,532.52666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+44%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed FUT Esports24c4,445$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,378.5416449.4%81 W · 83 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked FUT Esports64c4,373$2,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.7935850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed FUT Esports49c4,246$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,155.992,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked FUT Esports61c4,231$2,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,658.413,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed FUT Esports54c4,011$2,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,835.430340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked FUT Esports25c4,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00027530.9%85 W · 190 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked FURIA3c3,903$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.0914934.9%52 W · 97 L-14.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked FUT Esports61c3,803$2,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.341,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5f1…3cdfbacked FUT Esports25c3,652$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,738.851040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+38.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FUT Esports50c3,648$1,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,808.591,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked FUT Esports25c3,040$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,279.9720539.5%81 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked FUT Esports60c2,920$1,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.082,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c2…55c3backed FUT Esports61c2,812$1,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,090.47642.1%32 W · 44 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15fe…c871backed FURIA44c2,771$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.574528.9%13 W · 32 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-29.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed FUT Esports23c2,685$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,067.4597040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed FURIA75c2,500$1,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8751,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed FUT Esports25c2,500$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.9850833.5%170 W · 338 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbec7…5977backed FURIA75c2,400$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80057647.6%274 W · 302 L-25.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed FUT Esports25c2,334$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,750.522448.7%109 W · 115 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x06db…1e5cbacked FUT Esports25c2,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5008146.9%38 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6395…d69dbacked FUT Esports25c2,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50011241.1%46 W · 66 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9095…2f3fbacked FURIA40c2,000$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.538852.3%46 W · 42 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed FUT Esports25c1,989$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,488.9611638.8%45 W · 71 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked FURIA51c1,941$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99081751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked FURIA45c1,924$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.9832930.4%100 W · 229 L-21.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked FURIA47c1,844$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.751,15748.2%558 W · 599 L+3.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed FURIA50c1,797$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90029851.3%153 W · 145 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf6d…cf10backed FUT Esports49c1,715$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.991040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed FURIA62c1,614$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00060248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed FUT Esports25c1,575$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.5526344.5%117 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf38b…b601backed FURIA36c1,562$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.273636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5866…b045backed FUT Esports25c1,540$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed FURIA59c1,529$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90034156.6%193 W · 148 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked FURIA47c1,504$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.8647738.4%183 W · 294 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4266…a06dbacked FUT Esports7c1,500$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,388250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+569.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5019…74cdbacked FUT Esports25c1,460$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.9111630.2%35 W · 81 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x757d…1496backed FUT Esports25c1,400$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,05024649.6%122 W · 124 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa558…1b44backed FURIA49c1,391$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.556432.8%21 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8b0…2aaebacked FURIA50c1,355$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6815451.9%28 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x562b…a3cbbacked FURIA40c1,352$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed FUT Esports24c1,323$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.8525941.3%107 W · 152 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x595b…c9d0backed FURIA75c1,312$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.913857.9%22 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick60cpaid+1.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fef…b2b5backed FUT Esports63c1,296$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.955450%27 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed FUT Esports31c1,286$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.4517230.8%53 W · 119 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4aae…6224backed FURIA38c1,255$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddd3…dba6backed FUT Esports24c1,230$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.6111252.7%59 W · 53 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x486f…b325backed FURIA76c1,216$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick68cpaid-43%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1b0…5e03backed FURIA43c1,149$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.713234.4%11 W · 21 L-6.5wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-40.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x213f…1da2backed FUT Esports26c1,100$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81410244.1%45 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2218…9467backed FUT Esports64c1,094$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.751656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked FURIA74c1,083$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.441,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked FUT Esports25c1,080$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.1216240.1%65 W · 97 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked FURIA37c1,075$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.8636245.3%164 W · 198 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94f8…e851backed FURIA76c1,072$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.887060%42 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a8…bdc6backed FUT Esports63c1,044$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.8310753.3%57 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e18…e68bbacked FURIA2c1,036$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.791435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked FURIA55c1,019$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.832,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed FUT Esports25c1,000$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75010551.4%54 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac0c…739cbacked FURIA31c999.99$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31066034.1%225 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed FUT Esports24c999.99$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.9924139%94 W · 147 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked FUT Esports24c999.87$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.981244.3%360 W · 452 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed FUT Esports46c994.28$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.61,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed FURIA27c973.03$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.092,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa097…8795backed FUT Esports51c970.59$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.5917347.4%82 W · 91 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed FURIA50c927.66$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.264,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed FUT Esports25c888.88$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.665,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked FUT Esports24c816.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.671,04357.3%598 W · 445 L+17.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed FURIA74c807.8$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020944%92 W · 117 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb963…3fa0backed FUT Esports25c807.07$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.0250043%215 W · 285 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8120…057dbacked FUT Esports7c800$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.60per pick6cpaid+927.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.