TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vitalityof Vitality, BC.Game Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$431,666
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$432,730

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $431,666 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc257…358ebacked BC.Game Esports12c111,167$13,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,339.5239249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fe8…3549backed BC.Game Esports12c15,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80013954.7%76 W · 63 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa643…d43dbacked BC.Game Esports12c11,421$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,370.552733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked BC.Game Esports11c11,155$1,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,241.21,62944.8%730 W · 899 L+4.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked BC.Game Esports13c8,635$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,101.531,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed BC.Game Esports11c8,235$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.4497240.7%396 W · 576 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed BC.Game Esports10c7,866$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82012450%62 W · 62 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked BC.Game Esports9c7,611$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.2142440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked BC.Game Esports6c7,426$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.0412736.2%46 W · 81 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c39…f064backed BC.Game Esports10c6,487$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.15520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid+146.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed BC.Game Esports10c6,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.9850833.5%170 W · 338 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b4…980abacked BC.Game Esports11c5,455$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.241250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c1…7487backed BC.Game Esports19c5,209$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.5816732.9%55 W · 112 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1be…a7f6backed BC.Game Esports4c5,144$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.772334.8%8 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick20cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1878…0d50backed BC.Game Esports3c5,067$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1564723.4%11 W · 36 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a55…1d25backed BC.Game Esports12c5,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60080%0 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x66ec…8c18backed BC.Game Esports9c4,502$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.288416.7%14 W · 70 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-38.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddd3…dba6backed BC.Game Esports12c4,322$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51511252.7%59 W · 53 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc723…e707backed BC.Game Esports12c4,115$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.841225%3 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-65.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked BC.Game Esports10c3,663$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.9432930.4%100 W · 229 L-21.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked BC.Game Esports10c3,500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.9920539.5%81 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed BC.Game Esports6c3,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19055343.2%239 W · 314 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed BC.Game Esports8c2,970$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2254621.7%10 W · 36 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed BC.Game Esports11c2,935$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.4639239.8%156 W · 236 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked BC.Game Esports16c2,921$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.2811631.9%37 W · 79 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed BC.Game Esports13c2,608$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.0511638.8%45 W · 71 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c6…1c37backed BC.Game Esports12c2,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011937.8%45 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-21.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed BC.Game Esports12c2,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24055736.3%202 W · 355 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked BC.Game Esports11c1,921$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.473,25950.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L+98.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked BC.Game Esports10c1,819$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.92,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed BC.Game Esports12c1,798$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.1514037.1%52 W · 88 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked BC.Game Esports9c1,700$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1581,05157.2%601 W · 450 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x185a…5104backed BC.Game Esports3c1,660$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.247115.5%11 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-41.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed BC.Game Esports12c1,500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18025941.3%107 W · 152 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed BC.Game Esports11c1,500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1655,87637.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L+71.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed BC.Game Esports7c1,448$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009234.8%32 W · 60 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed BC.Game Esports11c1,364$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15029851.3%153 W · 145 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed BC.Game Esports11c1,275$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.231,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked BC.Game Esports3c1,255$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7615320.9%32 W · 121 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebd5…094cbacked BC.Game Esports17c1,131$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.244841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b2…9ac1backed BC.Game Esports6c1,111$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6721137.4%79 W · 132 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f2e…44c3backed BC.Game Esports10c1,100$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.994136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked BC.Game Esports12c1,068$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.1512038.3%46 W · 74 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2905…6255backed BC.Game Esports12c1,066$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.914924.5%12 W · 37 L-7.9wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-40.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbca4…e4e7backed BC.Game Esports10c1,015$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005639.3%22 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked BC.Game Esports15c1,015$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502,22347.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L-5.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed BC.Game Esports8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8046340.8%189 W · 274 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x477d…d08bbacked BC.Game Esports1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x213f…1da2backed BC.Game Esports13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010244.1%45 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbec7…5977backed BC.Game Esports11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11057647.6%274 W · 302 L-25.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed BC.Game Esports11c999.98$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11022448.7%109 W · 115 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8155…5377backed BC.Game Esports11c999.95$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.994168.3%28 W · 13 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5019…74cdbacked BC.Game Esports11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011630.2%35 W · 81 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebee…b373backed BC.Game Esports12c833.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc651…15d3backed BC.Game Esports12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010635.8%38 W · 68 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked BC.Game Esports9c832.22$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.938636%139 W · 247 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d4…20a5backed BC.Game Esports12c814.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked BC.Game Esports12c801.12$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1217648.3%85 W · 91 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8879…b58fbacked BC.Game Esports13c792.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2862…78dcbacked BC.Game Esports13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010344.7%46 W · 57 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+29.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3e42…5856backed BC.Game Esports12c750.12$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.858929.2%26 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f9b…71f8backed BC.Game Esports11c735.73$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.937345.2%33 W · 40 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed BC.Game Esports17c702$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.6846344.5%206 W · 257 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed BC.Game Esports12c666.97$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8035048%168 W · 182 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed BC.Game Esports9c665.37$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8872453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28da…c39bbacked BC.Game Esports3c661.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.862433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aee…51a8backed BC.Game Esports12c653.87$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.395738.6%22 W · 35 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab82…bfbdbacked BC.Game Esports18c633.5$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff70…2475backed BC.Game Esports8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503836.8%14 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a7a…7181backed BC.Game Esports16c611.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed BC.Game Esports10c605$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.530335.6%108 W · 195 L-13.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee55…eebebacked BC.Game Esports12c604.42$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb8ca…3d64backed BC.Game Esports10c600$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f9…91d6backed BC.Game Esports11c600$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f54…e40abacked BC.Game Esports12c583.33$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3dd…bad2backed BC.Game Esports11c559.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked BC.Game Esports17c550$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3848948.7%238 W · 251 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed BC.Game Esports15c548.95$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8329128.5%83 W · 208 L-30.2wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-38.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8da1…339ebacked BC.Game Esports16c541.94$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.644734%16 W · 31 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-30.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x42e3…9966backed BC.Game Esports15c530$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5bb…f345backed BC.Game Esports4c502.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3570%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BC.Game Esports18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…9996backed BC.Game Esports4c500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked BC.Game Esports8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed BC.Game Esports14c500$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.54,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac0c…739cbacked BC.Game Esports11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5566034.1%225 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb70c…41d5backed BC.Game Esports12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6034235.4%121 W · 221 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad9…66cabacked BC.Game Esports10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83fd…2aabbacked BC.Game Esports13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6511232.1%36 W · 76 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8d7…3e75backed BC.Game Esports6c494.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.24540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4be…2424backed BC.Game Esports12c487.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf0…e384backed BC.Game Esports11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5033153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b5d…d1b3backed BC.Game Esports11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked BC.Game Esports12c452.74$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-29.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e8e…0519backed BC.Game Esports13c410.69$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9ef0…eba7backed BC.Game Esports15c410$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.44040%16 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed BC.Game Esports11c403.01$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.282,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb55f…5705backed BC.Game Esports14c400$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.66605%3 W · 57 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked BC.Game Esports11c400$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.543640.6%177 W · 259 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed BC.Game Esports3c397.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3542638%162 W · 264 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.