TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Spurs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spursof Magic, Spurs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,989,322
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,180,856

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,989,322 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd9b…414dbacked Spurs65c197,137$128,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,882.0551844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Spurs65c148,482$96,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,968.6423257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Magic45c130,000$57,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,899.9940446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Spurs55c126,025$69,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,380.6254539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Spurs66c124,034$81,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,707.612,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Magic35c105,555$36,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,944.2543148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d10…e270backed Magic19c101,146$19,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,297.955139.2%20 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Magic36c98,566$35,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,603.5159347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5330…0bfabacked Magic38c91,538$34,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,455.0813142.7%56 W · 75 L-8.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Spurs57c88,907$50,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,229.9220055%110 W · 90 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Magic36c80,011$28,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,549.1360351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…88b4backed Spurs59c66,767$39,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,045.9722453.1%119 W · 105 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Magic40c47,259$18,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,697.4372648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Spurs64c45,220$28,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,279.351,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b33…3d6abacked Magic13c44,111$5,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,731.488531.8%27 W · 58 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Magic35c40,460$14,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,161.1429055.5%161 W · 129 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Spurs74c40,170$29,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,394.641,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Magic36c40,144$14,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,450.3159653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07c…11a0backed Spurs60c40,122$24,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,121.9218140.3%73 W · 108 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Magic1c39,003$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.1864517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb915…8da5backed Magic35c37,948$13,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,162.3910459.6%62 W · 42 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+23%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Magic28c36,657$10,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,322.823,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Magic41c26,748$10,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,966.7445850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic40c22,304$9,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,016.34,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Spurs65c20,000$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,00021446.7%100 W · 114 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Magic42c19,411$8,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,117.3930845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14cc…7c02backed Magic48c19,377$9,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,324.213842.8%59 W · 79 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic22c19,139$4,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,159.774,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Magic1c17,992$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.895213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcad4…c108backed Spurs60c17,535$10,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,016.156651.5%34 W · 32 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Spurs73c17,291$12,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,691.1712951.9%67 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Magic13c15,958$2,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,082.141,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac3c…d637backed Magic33c15,700$5,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1812128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Magic37c15,205$5,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,677.423,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Magic42c15,000$6,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,30037944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Magic27c13,870$3,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,74521944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Magic38c13,867$5,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,293.884,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Spurs72c13,201$9,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,651.1789444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Spurs78c13,035$10,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,907.9716042.5%68 W · 92 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Magic35c13,000$4,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,55045348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Magic43c12,300$5,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2895655.4%31 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Magic41c12,000$4,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,92028554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x872b…16e9backed Magic0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Magic30c11,986$3,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,609.641,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Magic42c11,330$4,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,720.6828742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Spurs56c11,209$6,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,932.041,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df6…b212backed Magic41c11,027$4,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,479.751844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Magic33c10,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30046928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Magic0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.867921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f8e…53a8backed Magic0c9,990$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.48771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Magic3c9,619$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.191,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0072…3d75backed Spurs64c9,523$6,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,428.2814738.1%56 W · 91 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Spurs61c9,491$5,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,701.362,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Magic36c9,094$3,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,27417356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Magic42c9,000$3,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,76046145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x92d1…8a29backed Magic34c8,888$3,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,021.926344.4%28 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x484a…faf1backed Spurs67c8,758$5,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,890.21080%8 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Spurs65c8,679$5,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,037.7114358.7%84 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Magic39c8,502$3,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,287.0839842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4c9…cd97backed Magic35c8,500$2,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9758640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbab7…bc7cbacked Spurs65c8,500$5,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,974.839054.4%49 W · 41 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9e6…2f0fbacked Spurs57c8,065$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,464.811546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ce0…0639backed Magic34c8,001$2,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,720.34580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1c4…48d7backed Spurs66c8,000$5,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7204165.9%27 W · 14 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae8c…93cdbacked Magic44c8,000$3,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,519.998347%39 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Spurs75c7,622$5,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,905.5720758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Spurs72c7,124$5,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9641,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x490e…73adbacked Magic21c7,098$1,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.319424.5%23 W · 71 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcd…355abacked Magic41c7,080$2,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,911.647536%27 W · 48 L-9.9wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Spurs57c7,000$3,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,009.9958449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Spurs58c6,949$4,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,918.718543.5%37 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Magic43c6,651$2,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,827.6462351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Magic43c6,637$2,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,853.9119560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Spurs73c6,632$4,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,758.781529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Magic44c6,555$2,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,884.2828649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Magic33c6,532$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,150.4835450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5f…db04backed Spurs63c6,261$3,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,300.743056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Magic36c6,243$2,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,247.661851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdd7…3d25backed Spurs65c6,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,099.952065%13 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe711…3dd2backed Magic30c5,996$1,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,806.1412855.5%71 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Magic1c5,967$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4217042.4%72 W · 98 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Spurs65c5,948$3,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,067.612,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Magic35c5,714$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Magic39c5,616$2,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,163.0826247.7%125 W · 137 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2218…9467backed Magic31c5,565$1,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,737.721118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick40cpaid-69.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Magic0c5,400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.258820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Spurs69c5,309$3,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,641.6348956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Magic43c5,233$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2501,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Magic5c5,177$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.723,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Spurs60c5,117$3,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,021.329,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Spurs59c5,001$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,050.6615146.4%70 W · 81 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61a1…6657backed Magic39c4,992$1,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,933.2327758.8%163 W · 114 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b69…a9f2backed Spurs66c4,708$3,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,617.343452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eab…7e13backed Spurs61c4,569$2,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,774.5214152.5%74 W · 67 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Spurs58c4,519$2,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,897.9541652.2%217 W · 199 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Magic35c4,286$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50048938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Magic41c4,284$1,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760.6860549.8%301 W · 304 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Magic38c4,113$1,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.412,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf26…39a6backed Magic42c4,081$1,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,732.743351.5%17 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Magic31c4,027$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.917233.7%58 W · 114 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.