NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde887227056b2685f6eb3f76015d1f5d22317e6a6ef93b30d29298380a8b5884
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Spurs, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Spurs | 40c | 160$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Spurs | 40c | 139$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Spurs | 46c | 125$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Spurs | 40c | 123$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Spurs | 44c | 113.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Magic | 56c | 105.82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Spurs | 41c | 99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Spurs | 44c | 81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Spurs | 42c | 72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…d47ebacked Magic | 60c | 58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Magic | 60c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a1…be8bbacked Magic | 58c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Magic | 60c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x870f…08ebbacked Magic | 56c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Magic | 60c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Magic | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Magic | 50c | 33.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Magic | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Magic | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked Magic | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked Magic | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Magic | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…73c9backed Magic | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Magic | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Magic | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Magic | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Magic | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Magic | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Magic | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed Magic | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Magic | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…2bfebacked Magic | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…53f7backed Magic | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Magic | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…6613backed Magic | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5)this page
- Magic vs. SpursSpurs won
- Magic vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Magic vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Magic vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Under won
- Magic vs. Spurs: O/U 223.5Under won
- Magic vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5Under won
- Magic vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 11.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.