NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96095ceb2a28b50ef80d888616a484626a7a61c834fa7af4c259b3fd54bdbe55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Magic | 4c | 1,673$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,609.53 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Magic | 28c | 708.96$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.88 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Spurs | 39c | 280$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Magic | 44c | 132$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Magic | 37c | 107$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Magic | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Magic | 44c | 97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Magic | 41c | 92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Magic | 38c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccd9…f849backed Spurs | 61c | 56.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373f…4275backed Spurs | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed Spurs | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…e450backed Spurs | 59c | 37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4523backed Spurs | 56c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Spurs | 61c | 32.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…d642backed Spurs | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…2117backed Spurs | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked Spurs | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Spurs | 63c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…e95bbacked Spurs | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Spurs | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Spurs | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…246cbacked Magic | 47c | 21.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Spurs | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed Spurs | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Spurs | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Spurs | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Spurs | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Spurs | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Magic | 71c | 14.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Spurs: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Magic won
- Magic vs. SpursSpurs won
- Magic vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Magic vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Magic vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Under won
- Magic vs. Spurs: O/U 223.5Under won
- Magic vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5Under won
- Magic vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 11.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.