NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4919fee22a0f3a40b53702c6529b5c538750621ff2e187af554165beecfb5897
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Under | 54c | 41,379$22,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,048 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 46c | 32,031$14,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,734.41 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 13,114$6,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,069.14 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,919.98 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Over | 48c | 2,233$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072 | 130 | 63.8%83 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1e…4365backed Over | 48c | 2,163$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…4ec0backed Over | 48c | 1,600$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.77 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 53c | 1,375$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.1 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd5…9c28backed Under | 55c | 1,300$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed Over | 45c | 777.14$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.82 | 151 | 41.1%62 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 44c | 212.97$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.71 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098b…1fa5backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 47c | 140.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 463 | 46.4%215 W · 248 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Over | 47c | 135$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Over | 45c | 132$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea52…b082backed Over | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…b0f8backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Over | 46c | 102$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 41c | 90$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 56c | 89.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Over | 47c | 88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Over | 46c | 81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Over | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c6…85b9backed Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…7ed2backed Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed Under | 55c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Under | 54c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed Under | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Under | 54c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 48c | 32.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Under | 54c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Under | 55c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Under | 55c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked Under | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…a19dbacked Under | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…e342backed Under | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…e5d1backed Under | 54c | 27.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Under | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870f…08ebbacked Under | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Under | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…2c48backed Under | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…d6bdbacked Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Under | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…b38dbacked Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Magic won
- Magic vs. SpursSpurs won
- Magic vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Magic vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Magic vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Under won
- Magic vs. Spurs: O/U 223.5Under won
- Magic vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 11.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.