NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8acf9b8781183839bbfa866f6c53b3dfa363e779238bb960ff5b756f1d5936a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Spurs, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spurs | 49c | 6,925$3,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,548.47 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8873…09fcbacked Magic | 54c | 4,631$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Spurs | 46c | 4,537$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,449.97 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Magic | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Magic | 46c | 1,665$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.8 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…355abacked Magic | 46c | 1,274$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.86 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -9.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Spurs | 52c | 872.99$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.26 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Magic | 46c | 649.78$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.82 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75c4…4c26backed Magic | 46c | 585.7$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Magic | 39c | 465.73$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.44 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa885…84debacked Spurs | 48c | 385$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.9 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Spurs | 45c | 364.16$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.47 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Spurs | 78c | 255.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Magic | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Spurs | 53c | 171.54$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.98 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Magic | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Spurs | 47c | 96.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…7dc1backed Spurs | 49c | 83.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Spurs | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Magic | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 545 | 49.5%270 W · 275 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…fbd1backed Spurs | 45c | 58.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Spurs | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 225 | 56.9%128 W · 97 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…95e3backed Spurs | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…e5d1backed Spurs | 46c | 38.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Spurs | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Magic | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19cc…c85ebacked Spurs | 48c | 34.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…0a6abacked Spurs | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd46…8a23backed Magic | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.32per pick | 41cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Magic | 37c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…a8a0backed Magic | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Spurs | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Magic won
- Magic vs. SpursSpurs won
- Magic vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Magic vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Magic vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Under won
- Magic vs. Spurs: O/U 223.5Under won
- Magic vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5Under won
- Magic vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 11.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.